**Current forecasts from MetService and international models align on a maximum air temperature of 15°C in Wellington today, driven by a southerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating.** Spring climatology places average September highs near 14°C, and recent observations from Wellington International Airport show readings climbing toward but not beyond this threshold amid moderate winds that enhance mixing and prevent localized warming. The 99.5% market-implied probability reflects trader confidence in official maximum-temperature records, which incorporate standardized Stevenson screen measurements. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model shifts producing stronger northerly flow or clearer skies allowing additional solar heating, or localized urban effects pushing readings slightly higher; however, the tight consensus across multiple runs makes significant deviation unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
15°C 99.7%
16°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
$90,774 Vol.
$90,774 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99.7%
16°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
$90,774 Vol.
$90,774 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
9°C or below
$214 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$952 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,902 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$7,010 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$25,483 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$19,629 Vol.
100%
16°C
$24,947 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,162 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,224 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and international models align on a maximum air temperature of 15°C in Wellington today, driven by a southerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating.** Spring climatology places average September highs near 14°C, and recent observations from Wellington International Airport show readings climbing toward but not beyond this threshold amid moderate winds that enhance mixing and prevent localized warming. The 99.5% market-implied probability reflects trader confidence in official maximum-temperature records, which incorporate standardized Stevenson screen measurements. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model shifts producing stronger northerly flow or clearer skies allowing additional solar heating, or localized urban effects pushing readings slightly higher; however, the tight consensus across multiple runs makes significant deviation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$90,774End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and international models align on a maximum air temperature of 15°C in Wellington today, driven by a southerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating.** Spring climatology places average September highs near 14°C, and recent observations from Wellington International Airport show readings climbing toward but not beyond this threshold amid moderate winds that enhance mixing and prevent localized warming. The 99.5% market-implied probability reflects trader confidence in official maximum-temperature records, which incorporate standardized Stevenson screen measurements. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model shifts producing stronger northerly flow or clearer skies allowing additional solar heating, or localized urban effects pushing readings slightly higher; however, the tight consensus across multiple runs makes significant deviation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$90,774End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from MetService and international models align on a maximum air temperature of 15°C in Wellington today, driven by a southerly airflow and partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating.** Spring climatology places average September highs near 14°C, and recent observations from Wellington International Airport show readings climbing toward but not beyond this threshold amid moderate winds that enhance mixing and prevent localized warming. The 99.5% market-implied probability reflects trader confidence in official maximum-temperature records, which incorporate standardized Stevenson screen measurements. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include unexpected model shifts producing stronger northerly flow or clearer skies allowing additional solar heating, or localized urban effects pushing readings slightly higher; however, the tight consensus across multiple runs makes significant deviation unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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