Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate a frontal passage bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and precipitation to São Paulo on September 22, suppressing daytime heating. Highs are projected in the 20–24°C range, with 70–90% rain chances and northerly to westerly winds limiting solar insolation. This follows warmer, drier conditions earlier in the week, aligning with seasonal September baselines of 22–25°C maxima while deviating from any potential heat buildup. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C or below at 85.5% implied probability, reflecting model agreement on these atmospheric conditions ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 22?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 22?
24°C or below 86%
26°C 7%
25°C 6%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
24°C or below
86%
25°C
6%
26°C
7%
27°C
6%
28°C
3%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
4%
24°C or below 86%
26°C 7%
25°C 6%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
24°C or below
$268 Vol.
86%
25°C
$5 Vol.
6%
26°C
$5 Vol.
7%
27°C
$5 Vol.
6%
28°C
$105 Vol.
3%
29°C
$640 Vol.
3%
30°C
$5 Vol.
1%
31°C
$197 Vol.
3%
32°C
$10 Vol.
4%
33°C
$10 Vol.
4%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate a frontal passage bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and precipitation to São Paulo on September 22, suppressing daytime heating. Highs are projected in the 20–24°C range, with 70–90% rain chances and northerly to westerly winds limiting solar insolation. This follows warmer, drier conditions earlier in the week, aligning with seasonal September baselines of 22–25°C maxima while deviating from any potential heat buildup. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C or below at 85.5% implied probability, reflecting model agreement on these atmospheric conditions ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$1,255End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate a frontal passage bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and precipitation to São Paulo on September 22, suppressing daytime heating. Highs are projected in the 20–24°C range, with 70–90% rain chances and northerly to westerly winds limiting solar insolation. This follows warmer, drier conditions earlier in the week, aligning with seasonal September baselines of 22–25°C maxima while deviating from any potential heat buildup. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C or below at 85.5% implied probability, reflecting model agreement on these atmospheric conditions ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,255End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, indicate a frontal passage bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and precipitation to São Paulo on September 22, suppressing daytime heating. Highs are projected in the 20–24°C range, with 70–90% rain chances and northerly to westerly winds limiting solar insolation. This follows warmer, drier conditions earlier in the week, aligning with seasonal September baselines of 22–25°C maxima while deviating from any potential heat buildup. Trader consensus heavily favors 24°C or below at 85.5% implied probability, reflecting model agreement on these atmospheric conditions ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions