Strong west-northwesterly wind shear has displaced Fay’s convection well east of its exposed low-level center while dry mid-level air continues to wrap around the system, driving rapid weakening. National Hurricane Center analyses show maximum sustained winds already down to 35–40 kt on September 22, with Dvorak estimates trending lower and the storm forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night over the open central Atlantic. Model consensus from the GFS and ECMWF reinforces this hostile environment, far from any supportive sea-surface temperatures or reduced shear that could allow re-intensification. The near-certain market-implied probability reflects these confirmed observations and the absence of any plausible pathway to the 64-kt hurricane threshold before dissipation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Strong west-northwesterly wind shear has displaced Fay’s convection well east of its exposed low-level center while dry mid-level air continues to wrap around the system, driving rapid weakening. National Hurricane Center analyses show maximum sustained winds already down to 35–40 kt on September 22, with Dvorak estimates trending lower and the storm forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night over the open central Atlantic. Model consensus from the GFS and ECMWF reinforces this hostile environment, far from any supportive sea-surface temperatures or reduced shear that could allow re-intensification. The near-certain market-implied probability reflects these confirmed observations and the absence of any plausible pathway to the 64-kt hurricane threshold before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$1,070End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Strong west-northwesterly wind shear has displaced Fay’s convection well east of its exposed low-level center while dry mid-level air continues to wrap around the system, driving rapid weakening. National Hurricane Center analyses show maximum sustained winds already down to 35–40 kt on September 22, with Dvorak estimates trending lower and the storm forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night over the open central Atlantic. Model consensus from the GFS and ECMWF reinforces this hostile environment, far from any supportive sea-surface temperatures or reduced shear that could allow re-intensification. The near-certain market-implied probability reflects these confirmed observations and the absence of any plausible pathway to the 64-kt hurricane threshold before dissipation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Fay reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Fay reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Fay does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Fay is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$1,070End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Strong west-northwesterly wind shear has displaced Fay’s convection well east of its exposed low-level center while dry mid-level air continues to wrap around the system, driving rapid weakening. National Hurricane Center analyses show maximum sustained winds already down to 35–40 kt on September 22, with Dvorak estimates trending lower and the storm forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night over the open central Atlantic. Model consensus from the GFS and ECMWF reinforces this hostile environment, far from any supportive sea-surface temperatures or reduced shear that could allow re-intensification. The near-certain market-implied probability reflects these confirmed observations and the absence of any plausible pathway to the 64-kt hurricane threshold before dissipation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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