Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a stable high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula driving clear skies and light easterly winds for September 22 in Incheon and Seoul, favoring peak daytime heating near 28°C. Current conditions show highs of 28–29°C on September 20–21 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with late-September patterns where solar insolation remains strong before seasonal cooling accelerates. Historical September averages hover around 25°C, but the absence of frontal systems or monsoon remnants supports the market-implied emphasis on 27–28°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh slight model spread in maximum timing and urban heat effects, with new runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration likely to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 22?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 22?
28°C 49%
27°C 30%
29°C 13%
26°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
9%
26°C
12%
27°C
28%
28°C
49%
29°C
13%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 49%
27°C 30%
29°C 13%
26°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
$24 Vol.
1%
23°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
9%
26°C
$395 Vol.
12%
27°C
$90 Vol.
28%
28°C
$298 Vol.
49%
29°C
$227 Vol.
13%
30°C
$38 Vol.
2%
31°C
$67 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a stable high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula driving clear skies and light easterly winds for September 22 in Incheon and Seoul, favoring peak daytime heating near 28°C. Current conditions show highs of 28–29°C on September 20–21 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with late-September patterns where solar insolation remains strong before seasonal cooling accelerates. Historical September averages hover around 25°C, but the absence of frontal systems or monsoon remnants supports the market-implied emphasis on 27–28°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh slight model spread in maximum timing and urban heat effects, with new runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration likely to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,336End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a stable high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula driving clear skies and light easterly winds for September 22 in Incheon and Seoul, favoring peak daytime heating near 28°C. Current conditions show highs of 28–29°C on September 20–21 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with late-September patterns where solar insolation remains strong before seasonal cooling accelerates. Historical September averages hover around 25°C, but the absence of frontal systems or monsoon remnants supports the market-implied emphasis on 27–28°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh slight model spread in maximum timing and urban heat effects, with new runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration likely to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,336End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF points to a stable high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula driving clear skies and light easterly winds for September 22 in Incheon and Seoul, favoring peak daytime heating near 28°C. Current conditions show highs of 28–29°C on September 20–21 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation risk, consistent with late-September patterns where solar insolation remains strong before seasonal cooling accelerates. Historical September averages hover around 25°C, but the absence of frontal systems or monsoon remnants supports the market-implied emphasis on 27–28°C outcomes. Traders appear to weigh slight model spread in maximum timing and urban heat effects, with new runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration likely to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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