Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a low near 56°F for Chicago on September 24, close to the 1991–2020 average of 55°F, amid persistent northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating and overnight radiative cooling. Lake Michigan's moderating influence and the current cool pattern—driven by onshore flow—support this moderate outcome, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum a few degrees lower or allow clearer skies for greater cooling. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between extremes below 47°F and above 66°F, traders appear focused on forecast uncertainty in the final model updates before the 24-hour period begins, where even modest changes in steering patterns or high-pressure positioning could differentiate the bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 24?
47°F or below 99%
66°F or higher 98%
56-57°F 40%
58-59°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
99%
48-49°F
39%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
40%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66°F or higher
98%
47°F or below 99%
66°F or higher 98%
56-57°F 40%
58-59°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
99%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
39%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
40%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a low near 56°F for Chicago on September 24, close to the 1991–2020 average of 55°F, amid persistent northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating and overnight radiative cooling. Lake Michigan's moderating influence and the current cool pattern—driven by onshore flow—support this moderate outcome, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum a few degrees lower or allow clearer skies for greater cooling. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between extremes below 47°F and above 66°F, traders appear focused on forecast uncertainty in the final model updates before the 24-hour period begins, where even modest changes in steering patterns or high-pressure positioning could differentiate the bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a low near 56°F for Chicago on September 24, close to the 1991–2020 average of 55°F, amid persistent northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating and overnight radiative cooling. Lake Michigan's moderating influence and the current cool pattern—driven by onshore flow—support this moderate outcome, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum a few degrees lower or allow clearer skies for greater cooling. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between extremes below 47°F and above 66°F, traders appear focused on forecast uncertainty in the final model updates before the 24-hour period begins, where even modest changes in steering patterns or high-pressure positioning could differentiate the bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate a low near 56°F for Chicago on September 24, close to the 1991–2020 average of 55°F, amid persistent northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating and overnight radiative cooling. Lake Michigan's moderating influence and the current cool pattern—driven by onshore flow—support this moderate outcome, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could push the minimum a few degrees lower or allow clearer skies for greater cooling. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between extremes below 47°F and above 66°F, traders appear focused on forecast uncertainty in the final model updates before the 24-hour period begins, where even modest changes in steering patterns or high-pressure positioning could differentiate the bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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