Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to partly cloudy conditions with easterly flow and highs of 96–99°F in Austin on September 24, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the upper 90s. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°F, dew-point levels near 70°F sustaining heat indices above 100°F, and light winds limiting mixing. Historical late-September baselines average 87–90°F, so the current warm anomaly reflects persistent high pressure and minimal frontal influence. Updated runs ahead of the event could shift probabilities if convective development or clearer skies alter the thermal profile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 24?
94-95°F 39%
96-97°F 26%
104-105°F 22%
98-99°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
89°F or below
7%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
12%
94-95°F
39%
96-97°F
26%
98-99°F
21%
100-101°F
9%
102-103°F
10%
104-105°F
22%
106-107°F
12%
108°F or higher
9%
94-95°F 39%
96-97°F 26%
104-105°F 22%
98-99°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
89°F or below
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
14%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
12%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
39%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
26%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
21%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
9%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
10%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
22%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
12%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to partly cloudy conditions with easterly flow and highs of 96–99°F in Austin on September 24, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the upper 90s. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°F, dew-point levels near 70°F sustaining heat indices above 100°F, and light winds limiting mixing. Historical late-September baselines average 87–90°F, so the current warm anomaly reflects persistent high pressure and minimal frontal influence. Updated runs ahead of the event could shift probabilities if convective development or clearer skies alter the thermal profile.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to partly cloudy conditions with easterly flow and highs of 96–99°F in Austin on September 24, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the upper 90s. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°F, dew-point levels near 70°F sustaining heat indices above 100°F, and light winds limiting mixing. Historical late-September baselines average 87–90°F, so the current warm anomaly reflects persistent high pressure and minimal frontal influence. Updated runs ahead of the event could shift probabilities if convective development or clearer skies alter the thermal profile.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to partly cloudy conditions with easterly flow and highs of 96–99°F in Austin on September 24, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the upper 90s. Key variables include afternoon cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures by 1–3°F, dew-point levels near 70°F sustaining heat indices above 100°F, and light winds limiting mixing. Historical late-September baselines average 87–90°F, so the current warm anomaly reflects persistent high pressure and minimal frontal influence. Updated runs ahead of the event could shift probabilities if convective development or clearer skies alter the thermal profile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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