Trader consensus on the Hong Kong maximum temperature for September 22 centers on 30–31°C because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability under a strengthening subtropical ridge. Sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C sustain high humidity and limit nocturnal cooling, while steering flow from the west keeps any tropical disturbances south of the territory. Recent runs from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate limited afternoon convection, keeping peak readings tightly clustered; a slight northward shift in the ridge axis or unexpected moisture surge could push readings to 32°C or hold them at 29°C. Updated model guidance and the next official forecast bulletin are the next catalysts likely to refine these closely matched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 22?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 22?
31°C 31%
30°C 31%
29°C 17%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
17%
30°C
31%
31°C
31%
32°C
16%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 31%
30°C 31%
29°C 17%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$20 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C
$131 Vol.
31%
31°C
$11 Vol.
31%
32°C
$29 Vol.
16%
33°C
$3 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the Hong Kong maximum temperature for September 22 centers on 30–31°C because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability under a strengthening subtropical ridge. Sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C sustain high humidity and limit nocturnal cooling, while steering flow from the west keeps any tropical disturbances south of the territory. Recent runs from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate limited afternoon convection, keeping peak readings tightly clustered; a slight northward shift in the ridge axis or unexpected moisture surge could push readings to 32°C or hold them at 29°C. Updated model guidance and the next official forecast bulletin are the next catalysts likely to refine these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$194End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the Hong Kong maximum temperature for September 22 centers on 30–31°C because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability under a strengthening subtropical ridge. Sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C sustain high humidity and limit nocturnal cooling, while steering flow from the west keeps any tropical disturbances south of the territory. Recent runs from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate limited afternoon convection, keeping peak readings tightly clustered; a slight northward shift in the ridge axis or unexpected moisture surge could push readings to 32°C or hold them at 29°C. Updated model guidance and the next official forecast bulletin are the next catalysts likely to refine these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$194End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Hong Kong maximum temperature for September 22 centers on 30–31°C because short-range forecast models show only modest day-to-day variability under a strengthening subtropical ridge. Sea-surface temperatures near 28–29°C sustain high humidity and limit nocturnal cooling, while steering flow from the west keeps any tropical disturbances south of the territory. Recent runs from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles indicate limited afternoon convection, keeping peak readings tightly clustered; a slight northward shift in the ridge axis or unexpected moisture surge could push readings to 32°C or hold them at 29°C. Updated model guidance and the next official forecast bulletin are the next catalysts likely to refine these closely matched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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