Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 kt with an exposed low-level center and asymmetric convection, faces mixed intensification signals that explain the near-even market odds on reaching hurricane strength. Recent National Hurricane Center analyses note improving organization via cooling cloud tops and banding, supported by decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, yet objective satellite estimates and scatterometer data have varied between 37-55 kt amid diurnal fluctuations. Key uncertainties include dry-air entrainment, potential interaction with nearby systems, and model spread on timing of strengthening, with official forecasts placing hurricane status around 36 hours but some guidance remaining lower. New infrared imagery, scatterometer passes, and updated model runs in the next 24-48 hours will likely clarify whether sustained winds exceed 64 kt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
49% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
49% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 kt with an exposed low-level center and asymmetric convection, faces mixed intensification signals that explain the near-even market odds on reaching hurricane strength. Recent National Hurricane Center analyses note improving organization via cooling cloud tops and banding, supported by decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, yet objective satellite estimates and scatterometer data have varied between 37-55 kt amid diurnal fluctuations. Key uncertainties include dry-air entrainment, potential interaction with nearby systems, and model spread on timing of strengthening, with official forecasts placing hurricane status around 36 hours but some guidance remaining lower. New infrared imagery, scatterometer passes, and updated model runs in the next 24-48 hours will likely clarify whether sustained winds exceed 64 kt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$1,054End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 kt with an exposed low-level center and asymmetric convection, faces mixed intensification signals that explain the near-even market odds on reaching hurricane strength. Recent National Hurricane Center analyses note improving organization via cooling cloud tops and banding, supported by decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, yet objective satellite estimates and scatterometer data have varied between 37-55 kt amid diurnal fluctuations. Key uncertainties include dry-air entrainment, potential interaction with nearby systems, and model spread on timing of strengthening, with official forecasts placing hurricane status around 36 hours but some guidance remaining lower. New infrared imagery, scatterometer passes, and updated model runs in the next 24-48 hours will likely clarify whether sustained winds exceed 64 kt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$1,054End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Odalys, currently at 45 kt with an exposed low-level center and asymmetric convection, faces mixed intensification signals that explain the near-even market odds on reaching hurricane strength. Recent National Hurricane Center analyses note improving organization via cooling cloud tops and banding, supported by decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, yet objective satellite estimates and scatterometer data have varied between 37-55 kt amid diurnal fluctuations. Key uncertainties include dry-air entrainment, potential interaction with nearby systems, and model spread on timing of strengthening, with official forecasts placing hurricane status around 36 hours but some guidance remaining lower. New infrared imagery, scatterometer passes, and updated model runs in the next 24-48 hours will likely clarify whether sustained winds exceed 64 kt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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