Current National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas point to a Monday high near 95–97°F amid a south-to-northwest wind shift and only a 20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 94–95°F. Key variables include the timing and coverage of any convective clouds that could suppress peak temperatures, subtle differences among GFS and ECMWF model runs on boundary-layer moisture, and the precise steering of a weak frontal boundary that may arrive later than currently projected. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 92°F, so the elevated baseline reflects persistent warm advection. Traders will closely watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates and local observations for any downward revision that could shift probability toward the 92–93°F bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 21?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 21?
94-95°F 29%
92-93°F 19%
96-97°F 17%
98-99°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
85°F or below
5%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
29%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
15%
100-101°F
15%
102-103°F
3%
104°F or higher
4%
94-95°F 29%
92-93°F 19%
96-97°F 17%
98-99°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
10%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
19%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
29%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
17%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
15%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
15%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
3%
104°F or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas point to a Monday high near 95–97°F amid a south-to-northwest wind shift and only a 20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 94–95°F. Key variables include the timing and coverage of any convective clouds that could suppress peak temperatures, subtle differences among GFS and ECMWF model runs on boundary-layer moisture, and the precise steering of a weak frontal boundary that may arrive later than currently projected. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 92°F, so the elevated baseline reflects persistent warm advection. Traders will closely watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates and local observations for any downward revision that could shift probability toward the 92–93°F bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas point to a Monday high near 95–97°F amid a south-to-northwest wind shift and only a 20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 94–95°F. Key variables include the timing and coverage of any convective clouds that could suppress peak temperatures, subtle differences among GFS and ECMWF model runs on boundary-layer moisture, and the precise steering of a weak frontal boundary that may arrive later than currently projected. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 92°F, so the elevated baseline reflects persistent warm advection. Traders will closely watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates and local observations for any downward revision that could shift probability toward the 92–93°F bin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas point to a Monday high near 95–97°F amid a south-to-northwest wind shift and only a 20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 94–95°F. Key variables include the timing and coverage of any convective clouds that could suppress peak temperatures, subtle differences among GFS and ECMWF model runs on boundary-layer moisture, and the precise steering of a weak frontal boundary that may arrive later than currently projected. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 92°F, so the elevated baseline reflects persistent warm advection. Traders will closely watch the next 12–24 hours of model updates and local observations for any downward revision that could shift probability toward the 92–93°F bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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