**Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on September 21 project a high of 31°C under a weak southwest monsoon, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies moderating daytime heating.** Recent model runs and historical September averages (roughly 30–31°C) support this baseline, yet market-implied odds favor 32–33°C because urban heat-island effects in Manila can add 1–2°C above regional forecasts during periods of lighter winds or reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include monsoon-driven humidity and thunderstorm timing, which suppress peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and shading, versus any brief clear intervals that allow greater insolation. New PAGASA updates or refined model consensus before resolution will likely clarify whether conditions trend toward the lower or upper end of the narrow 31–33°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 21?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 21?
33°C 39%
32°C 35%
34°C 13%
31°C 9%
NEW
$10,692 Vol.
NEW
$10,692 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
35%
33°C
39%
34°C
13%
35°C
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 39%
32°C 35%
34°C 13%
31°C 9%
NEW
$10,692 Vol.
NEW
$10,692 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
28°C or below
$158 Vol.
2%
29°C
$333 Vol.
2%
30°C
$527 Vol.
3%
31°C
$4,025 Vol.
9%
32°C
$2,072 Vol.
35%
33°C
$2,598 Vol.
39%
34°C
$682 Vol.
13%
35°C
$182 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$4 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on September 21 project a high of 31°C under a weak southwest monsoon, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies moderating daytime heating.** Recent model runs and historical September averages (roughly 30–31°C) support this baseline, yet market-implied odds favor 32–33°C because urban heat-island effects in Manila can add 1–2°C above regional forecasts during periods of lighter winds or reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include monsoon-driven humidity and thunderstorm timing, which suppress peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and shading, versus any brief clear intervals that allow greater insolation. New PAGASA updates or refined model consensus before resolution will likely clarify whether conditions trend toward the lower or upper end of the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$10,692End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on September 21 project a high of 31°C under a weak southwest monsoon, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies moderating daytime heating.** Recent model runs and historical September averages (roughly 30–31°C) support this baseline, yet market-implied odds favor 32–33°C because urban heat-island effects in Manila can add 1–2°C above regional forecasts during periods of lighter winds or reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include monsoon-driven humidity and thunderstorm timing, which suppress peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and shading, versus any brief clear intervals that allow greater insolation. New PAGASA updates or refined model consensus before resolution will likely clarify whether conditions trend toward the lower or upper end of the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,692End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on September 21 project a high of 31°C under a weak southwest monsoon, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies moderating daytime heating.** Recent model runs and historical September averages (roughly 30–31°C) support this baseline, yet market-implied odds favor 32–33°C because urban heat-island effects in Manila can add 1–2°C above regional forecasts during periods of lighter winds or reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include monsoon-driven humidity and thunderstorm timing, which suppress peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and shading, versus any brief clear intervals that allow greater insolation. New PAGASA updates or refined model consensus before resolution will likely clarify whether conditions trend toward the lower or upper end of the narrow 31–33°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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