**Cloud cover and monsoon-driven moisture are the dominant factors shaping overnight minimum temperatures in Manila.** With the southwest monsoon (Habagat) prevailing over western Luzon, persistent cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms limit radiative cooling after sunset, typically anchoring lows near the 24–26 °C climatological range for September. PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate light-to-moderate winds and high humidity that further suppress sharp drops, while any clearing windows could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of forecasts. The near-even market split between sub-21 °C and 31 °C-plus outcomes reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and intensity for the 24-hour period ending September 21, with new observational data from the overnight hours likely to resolve the range quickly. Historical analogs show that strong monsoon episodes rarely produce extremes outside 23–27 °C for daily minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 21?
31°C or higher 92%
21°C or below 90%
27°C 40%
23°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
90%
22°C
13%
23°C
37%
24°C
37%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
24%
28°C
37%
29°C
14%
30°C
15%
31°C or higher
92%
31°C or higher 92%
21°C or below 90%
27°C 40%
23°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
37%
24°C
$0 Vol.
37%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$5 Vol.
24%
28°C
$0 Vol.
37%
29°C
$0 Vol.
14%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover and monsoon-driven moisture are the dominant factors shaping overnight minimum temperatures in Manila.** With the southwest monsoon (Habagat) prevailing over western Luzon, persistent cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms limit radiative cooling after sunset, typically anchoring lows near the 24–26 °C climatological range for September. PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate light-to-moderate winds and high humidity that further suppress sharp drops, while any clearing windows could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of forecasts. The near-even market split between sub-21 °C and 31 °C-plus outcomes reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and intensity for the 24-hour period ending September 21, with new observational data from the overnight hours likely to resolve the range quickly. Historical analogs show that strong monsoon episodes rarely produce extremes outside 23–27 °C for daily minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover and monsoon-driven moisture are the dominant factors shaping overnight minimum temperatures in Manila.** With the southwest monsoon (Habagat) prevailing over western Luzon, persistent cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms limit radiative cooling after sunset, typically anchoring lows near the 24–26 °C climatological range for September. PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate light-to-moderate winds and high humidity that further suppress sharp drops, while any clearing windows could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of forecasts. The near-even market split between sub-21 °C and 31 °C-plus outcomes reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and intensity for the 24-hour period ending September 21, with new observational data from the overnight hours likely to resolve the range quickly. Historical analogs show that strong monsoon episodes rarely produce extremes outside 23–27 °C for daily minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cloud cover and monsoon-driven moisture are the dominant factors shaping overnight minimum temperatures in Manila.** With the southwest monsoon (Habagat) prevailing over western Luzon, persistent cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms limit radiative cooling after sunset, typically anchoring lows near the 24–26 °C climatological range for September. PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate light-to-moderate winds and high humidity that further suppress sharp drops, while any clearing windows could allow brief radiative cooling toward the lower end of forecasts. The near-even market split between sub-21 °C and 31 °C-plus outcomes reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and intensity for the 24-hour period ending September 21, with new observational data from the overnight hours likely to resolve the range quickly. Historical analogs show that strong monsoon episodes rarely produce extremes outside 23–27 °C for daily minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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