Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Monday high near 95°F under persistent mid-level ridging and mostly sunny skies, with only a 20% chance of afternoon convection. This aligns with recent model consensus showing highs in the mid-90s amid typical late-September Gulf moisture and light easterly flow, without significant frontal passages or enhanced subsidence to push readings higher. Recent observations confirm the ongoing heat pattern, with daily maxima in the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices near 100°F, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward the 94-95°F bin while leaving modest probability for modest upward or downward revisions from updated model runs or unexpected cloud cover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 21?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 21?
94-95°F 53%
96-97°F 23%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
85°F or below
5%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
13%
94-95°F
53%
96-97°F
23%
98-99°F
19%
100-101°F
11%
102-103°F
5%
104°F or higher
5%
94-95°F 53%
96-97°F 23%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
85°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
5%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
11%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
13%
94-95°F
$157 Vol.
53%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
23%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
19%
100-101°F
$0 Vol.
11%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
5%
104°F or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Monday high near 95°F under persistent mid-level ridging and mostly sunny skies, with only a 20% chance of afternoon convection. This aligns with recent model consensus showing highs in the mid-90s amid typical late-September Gulf moisture and light easterly flow, without significant frontal passages or enhanced subsidence to push readings higher. Recent observations confirm the ongoing heat pattern, with daily maxima in the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices near 100°F, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward the 94-95°F bin while leaving modest probability for modest upward or downward revisions from updated model runs or unexpected cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$157End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Monday high near 95°F under persistent mid-level ridging and mostly sunny skies, with only a 20% chance of afternoon convection. This aligns with recent model consensus showing highs in the mid-90s amid typical late-September Gulf moisture and light easterly flow, without significant frontal passages or enhanced subsidence to push readings higher. Recent observations confirm the ongoing heat pattern, with daily maxima in the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices near 100°F, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward the 94-95°F bin while leaving modest probability for modest upward or downward revisions from updated model runs or unexpected cloud cover.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$157End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Monday high near 95°F under persistent mid-level ridging and mostly sunny skies, with only a 20% chance of afternoon convection. This aligns with recent model consensus showing highs in the mid-90s amid typical late-September Gulf moisture and light easterly flow, without significant frontal passages or enhanced subsidence to push readings higher. Recent observations confirm the ongoing heat pattern, with daily maxima in the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices near 100°F, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward the 94-95°F bin while leaving modest probability for modest upward or downward revisions from updated model runs or unexpected cloud cover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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