Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, light variable winds, and typical late-summer moisture at 2,240 m elevation. This alignment creates tight market-implied odds across the 13–16°C range, with traders weighing minor model spread in dew points and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. The notable allocation to 6°C or below reflects hedging against rare clear-sky radiative drops or measurement-site variations, though historical September minima rarely fall that low absent strong high-pressure systems. Updated runs from local Servicio Meteorológico Nacional monitoring and next model cycles will likely refine resolution criteria around official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 23?
6°C or below 68%
16°C or higher 35%
14°C 29%
15°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
6°C or below
68%
7°C
2%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
13%
11°C
9%
12°C
21%
13°C
22%
14°C
29%
15°C
23%
16°C or higher
35%
6°C or below 68%
16°C or higher 35%
14°C 29%
15°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
6°C or below
$100 Vol.
68%
7°C
$100 Vol.
2%
8°C
$100 Vol.
1%
9°C
$100 Vol.
1%
10°C
$40 Vol.
13%
11°C
$2 Vol.
9%
12°C
$10 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
23%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, light variable winds, and typical late-summer moisture at 2,240 m elevation. This alignment creates tight market-implied odds across the 13–16°C range, with traders weighing minor model spread in dew points and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. The notable allocation to 6°C or below reflects hedging against rare clear-sky radiative drops or measurement-site variations, though historical September minima rarely fall that low absent strong high-pressure systems. Updated runs from local Servicio Meteorológico Nacional monitoring and next model cycles will likely refine resolution criteria around official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$452End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, light variable winds, and typical late-summer moisture at 2,240 m elevation. This alignment creates tight market-implied odds across the 13–16°C range, with traders weighing minor model spread in dew points and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. The notable allocation to 6°C or below reflects hedging against rare clear-sky radiative drops or measurement-site variations, though historical September minima rarely fall that low absent strong high-pressure systems. Updated runs from local Servicio Meteorológico Nacional monitoring and next model cycles will likely refine resolution criteria around official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$452End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to Mexico City overnight lows near 13–15°C on September 23, driven by persistent cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, light variable winds, and typical late-summer moisture at 2,240 m elevation. This alignment creates tight market-implied odds across the 13–16°C range, with traders weighing minor model spread in dew points and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. The notable allocation to 6°C or below reflects hedging against rare clear-sky radiative drops or measurement-site variations, though historical September minima rarely fall that low absent strong high-pressure systems. Updated runs from local Servicio Meteorológico Nacional monitoring and next model cycles will likely refine resolution criteria around official station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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