Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to afternoon highs in Mexico City on September 24 reaching 24–27°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light winds, and reduced precipitation compared to the prior days' drizzle. Mexico City's high elevation moderates extremes, while September's typical pattern of convective afternoon heating supports peaks near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–24°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability for 27°C or higher reflects ensemble runs showing potential for stronger solar heating if cloud cover breaks, whereas the clustered odds around 24–26°C align with scenarios of lingering moisture and higher humidity limiting intensification. Updated model runs and official monitoring over the next 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 24?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 24?
27°C or higher 50%
26°C 26%
25°C 24%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
17°C or below
3%
18°C
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
12%
25°C
24%
26°C
26%
27°C or higher
50%
27°C or higher 50%
26°C 26%
25°C 24%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
3%
18°C
$10 Vol.
3%
19°C
$10 Vol.
3%
20°C
$10 Vol.
4%
21°C
$10 Vol.
4%
22°C
$3 Vol.
3%
23°C
$6 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
12%
25°C
$0 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to afternoon highs in Mexico City on September 24 reaching 24–27°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light winds, and reduced precipitation compared to the prior days' drizzle. Mexico City's high elevation moderates extremes, while September's typical pattern of convective afternoon heating supports peaks near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–24°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability for 27°C or higher reflects ensemble runs showing potential for stronger solar heating if cloud cover breaks, whereas the clustered odds around 24–26°C align with scenarios of lingering moisture and higher humidity limiting intensification. Updated model runs and official monitoring over the next 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$59End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to afternoon highs in Mexico City on September 24 reaching 24–27°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light winds, and reduced precipitation compared to the prior days' drizzle. Mexico City's high elevation moderates extremes, while September's typical pattern of convective afternoon heating supports peaks near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–24°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability for 27°C or higher reflects ensemble runs showing potential for stronger solar heating if cloud cover breaks, whereas the clustered odds around 24–26°C align with scenarios of lingering moisture and higher humidity limiting intensification. Updated model runs and official monitoring over the next 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$59End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and ECMWF points to afternoon highs in Mexico City on September 24 reaching 24–27°C, driven by partly cloudy skies, light winds, and reduced precipitation compared to the prior days' drizzle. Mexico City's high elevation moderates extremes, while September's typical pattern of convective afternoon heating supports peaks near or slightly above the seasonal average of 23–24°C. The 49.5% market-implied probability for 27°C or higher reflects ensemble runs showing potential for stronger solar heating if cloud cover breaks, whereas the clustered odds around 24–26°C align with scenarios of lingering moisture and higher humidity limiting intensification. Updated model runs and official monitoring over the next 48 hours will likely refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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