Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a nighttime low near 13°C in Mexico City on September 24, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation that enhances radiative cooling under expected partly cloudy skies and light winds. High daytime humidity from the late wet season and typical September subsidence patterns limit further drops, while any increase in overnight cloud cover or a minor frontal passage could raise the minimum by 1–2°C. These factors create genuine uncertainty around the 12–14°C range, where small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even market odds between sub-8°C extremes and milder outcomes above 16°C. Updated model runs and official observations will clarify resolution thresholds in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 24?
7°C or below 97%
17°C or higher 49%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
7°C or below
97%
8°C
39%
9°C
39%
10°C
23%
11°C
12%
12°C
12%
13°C
20%
14°C
21%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C or higher
49%
7°C or below 97%
17°C or higher 49%
8°C 39%
9°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
7°C or below
$10 Vol.
97%
8°C
$10 Vol.
39%
9°C
$10 Vol.
39%
10°C
$10 Vol.
23%
11°C
$0 Vol.
12%
12°C
$0 Vol.
12%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a nighttime low near 13°C in Mexico City on September 24, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation that enhances radiative cooling under expected partly cloudy skies and light winds. High daytime humidity from the late wet season and typical September subsidence patterns limit further drops, while any increase in overnight cloud cover or a minor frontal passage could raise the minimum by 1–2°C. These factors create genuine uncertainty around the 12–14°C range, where small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even market odds between sub-8°C extremes and milder outcomes above 16°C. Updated model runs and official observations will clarify resolution thresholds in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a nighttime low near 13°C in Mexico City on September 24, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation that enhances radiative cooling under expected partly cloudy skies and light winds. High daytime humidity from the late wet season and typical September subsidence patterns limit further drops, while any increase in overnight cloud cover or a minor frontal passage could raise the minimum by 1–2°C. These factors create genuine uncertainty around the 12–14°C range, where small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even market odds between sub-8°C extremes and milder outcomes above 16°C. Updated model runs and official observations will clarify resolution thresholds in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a nighttime low near 13°C in Mexico City on September 24, shaped by the city's 2,240 m elevation that enhances radiative cooling under expected partly cloudy skies and light winds. High daytime humidity from the late wet season and typical September subsidence patterns limit further drops, while any increase in overnight cloud cover or a minor frontal passage could raise the minimum by 1–2°C. These factors create genuine uncertainty around the 12–14°C range, where small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even market odds between sub-8°C extremes and milder outcomes above 16°C. Updated model runs and official observations will clarify resolution thresholds in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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