Recent cold, rainy conditions across São Paulo, driven by a persistent cold front and above-average September precipitation, have created forecast uncertainty for the September 24 minimum. Numerical models diverge on the degree of overnight radiative cooling under varying cloud cover, humidity, and light southeasterly winds, producing implied probabilities split near 50% between a low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher. Official guidance from agencies such as INMET and international ensembles indicates typical spring nighttime temperatures near 13–15 °C, yet small shifts in cloud timing or frontal timing could alter the exact minimum recorded at urban stations. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
9°C or below 91%
19°C or higher 91%
14°C 44%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
91%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C
20%
13°C
21%
14°C
27%
15°C
21%
16°C
20%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C or higher
91%
9°C or below 91%
19°C or higher 91%
14°C 44%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
91%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$7 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$10 Vol.
39%
18°C
$10 Vol.
39%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold, rainy conditions across São Paulo, driven by a persistent cold front and above-average September precipitation, have created forecast uncertainty for the September 24 minimum. Numerical models diverge on the degree of overnight radiative cooling under varying cloud cover, humidity, and light southeasterly winds, producing implied probabilities split near 50% between a low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher. Official guidance from agencies such as INMET and international ensembles indicates typical spring nighttime temperatures near 13–15 °C, yet small shifts in cloud timing or frontal timing could alter the exact minimum recorded at urban stations. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$47End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold, rainy conditions across São Paulo, driven by a persistent cold front and above-average September precipitation, have created forecast uncertainty for the September 24 minimum. Numerical models diverge on the degree of overnight radiative cooling under varying cloud cover, humidity, and light southeasterly winds, producing implied probabilities split near 50% between a low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher. Official guidance from agencies such as INMET and international ensembles indicates typical spring nighttime temperatures near 13–15 °C, yet small shifts in cloud timing or frontal timing could alter the exact minimum recorded at urban stations. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$47End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold, rainy conditions across São Paulo, driven by a persistent cold front and above-average September precipitation, have created forecast uncertainty for the September 24 minimum. Numerical models diverge on the degree of overnight radiative cooling under varying cloud cover, humidity, and light southeasterly winds, producing implied probabilities split near 50% between a low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher. Official guidance from agencies such as INMET and international ensembles indicates typical spring nighttime temperatures near 13–15 °C, yet small shifts in cloud timing or frontal timing could alter the exact minimum recorded at urban stations. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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