**A passing cold front and persistent cloud cover with widespread rain are the main drivers keeping Sao Paulo's September 23 minimum temperature uncertain and splitting trader sentiment.** Official forecasts from multiple models show a southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 14–16°C and overnight lows most likely settling between 12–14°C under overcast, rainy conditions that limit radiative cooling. Recent record September rainfall has already lowered seasonal baselines, and the front's exact timing and intensity introduce spread across ensembles—some runs allow brief clearing that could push the low below 10°C, while stronger southerly advection or lingering moisture supports values near or above 15°C. This genuine model divergence around the 13°C median explains the near-even odds between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 23?
18°C or higher 70%
8°C or below 63%
13°C 31%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
63%
9°C
8%
10°C
21%
11°C
21%
12°C
21%
13°C
31%
14°C
27%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
70%
18°C or higher 70%
8°C or below 63%
13°C 31%
14°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
$50 Vol.
63%
9°C
$40 Vol.
8%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
31%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$15 Vol.
4%
18°C or higher
$100 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A passing cold front and persistent cloud cover with widespread rain are the main drivers keeping Sao Paulo's September 23 minimum temperature uncertain and splitting trader sentiment.** Official forecasts from multiple models show a southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 14–16°C and overnight lows most likely settling between 12–14°C under overcast, rainy conditions that limit radiative cooling. Recent record September rainfall has already lowered seasonal baselines, and the front's exact timing and intensity introduce spread across ensembles—some runs allow brief clearing that could push the low below 10°C, while stronger southerly advection or lingering moisture supports values near or above 15°C. This genuine model divergence around the 13°C median explains the near-even odds between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$206End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A passing cold front and persistent cloud cover with widespread rain are the main drivers keeping Sao Paulo's September 23 minimum temperature uncertain and splitting trader sentiment.** Official forecasts from multiple models show a southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 14–16°C and overnight lows most likely settling between 12–14°C under overcast, rainy conditions that limit radiative cooling. Recent record September rainfall has already lowered seasonal baselines, and the front's exact timing and intensity introduce spread across ensembles—some runs allow brief clearing that could push the low below 10°C, while stronger southerly advection or lingering moisture supports values near or above 15°C. This genuine model divergence around the 13°C median explains the near-even odds between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$206End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A passing cold front and persistent cloud cover with widespread rain are the main drivers keeping Sao Paulo's September 23 minimum temperature uncertain and splitting trader sentiment.** Official forecasts from multiple models show a southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air, with daytime highs near 14–16°C and overnight lows most likely settling between 12–14°C under overcast, rainy conditions that limit radiative cooling. Recent record September rainfall has already lowered seasonal baselines, and the front's exact timing and intensity introduce spread across ensembles—some runs allow brief clearing that could push the low below 10°C, while stronger southerly advection or lingering moisture supports values near or above 15°C. This genuine model divergence around the 13°C median explains the near-even odds between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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