Trader consensus for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 24 shows near-even odds between 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, driven by divergent numerical weather prediction model outputs on the arrival and intensity of a potential cold front versus persistent subtropical high pressure. Warm, humid conditions typical of late-September monsoon influences could maintain overnight minima above 28°C if high pressure dominates, while a stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover from tropical moisture might drop readings toward 21°C or lower. Historical climatology indicates average lows near 25°C with notable year-to-year variability tied to ENSO and steering patterns. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely clarify these thresholds and shift market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 24?
21°C or below 100%
31°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
100%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
40%
26°C
40%
27°C
40%
28°C
8%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
98%
21°C or below 100%
31°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
40%
27°C
$0 Vol.
40%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 24 shows near-even odds between 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, driven by divergent numerical weather prediction model outputs on the arrival and intensity of a potential cold front versus persistent subtropical high pressure. Warm, humid conditions typical of late-September monsoon influences could maintain overnight minima above 28°C if high pressure dominates, while a stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover from tropical moisture might drop readings toward 21°C or lower. Historical climatology indicates average lows near 25°C with notable year-to-year variability tied to ENSO and steering patterns. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely clarify these thresholds and shift market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 24 shows near-even odds between 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, driven by divergent numerical weather prediction model outputs on the arrival and intensity of a potential cold front versus persistent subtropical high pressure. Warm, humid conditions typical of late-September monsoon influences could maintain overnight minima above 28°C if high pressure dominates, while a stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover from tropical moisture might drop readings toward 21°C or lower. Historical climatology indicates average lows near 25°C with notable year-to-year variability tied to ENSO and steering patterns. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely clarify these thresholds and shift market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 24 shows near-even odds between 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, driven by divergent numerical weather prediction model outputs on the arrival and intensity of a potential cold front versus persistent subtropical high pressure. Warm, humid conditions typical of late-September monsoon influences could maintain overnight minima above 28°C if high pressure dominates, while a stronger-than-expected frontal passage or increased cloud cover from tropical moisture might drop readings toward 21°C or lower. Historical climatology indicates average lows near 25°C with notable year-to-year variability tied to ENSO and steering patterns. Fresh ECMWF and GFS runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely clarify these thresholds and shift market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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