Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Shenzhen on September 23 near 26°C, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and warm, humid maritime air typical of the post-monsoon transition. Historical September lows average 24–26°C, with limited cooling from seasonal patterns or recent rain events supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 26–27°C outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds may moderate diurnal ranges but are unlikely to produce sharper drops absent a stronger frontal system. Updated model runs and official observations in the coming hours represent key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
22°C or below 48%
32°C or higher 48%
27°C 42%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
22°C or below
48%
23°C
17%
24°C
20%
25°C
22%
26°C
29%
27°C
42%
28°C
20%
29°C
2%
30°C
14%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
48%
22°C or below 48%
32°C or higher 48%
27°C 42%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
22°C or below
$100 Vol.
48%
23°C
$25 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$7 Vol.
42%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C
$17 Vol.
14%
31°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$100 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Shenzhen on September 23 near 26°C, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and warm, humid maritime air typical of the post-monsoon transition. Historical September lows average 24–26°C, with limited cooling from seasonal patterns or recent rain events supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 26–27°C outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds may moderate diurnal ranges but are unlikely to produce sharper drops absent a stronger frontal system. Updated model runs and official observations in the coming hours represent key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$340End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Shenzhen on September 23 near 26°C, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and warm, humid maritime air typical of the post-monsoon transition. Historical September lows average 24–26°C, with limited cooling from seasonal patterns or recent rain events supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 26–27°C outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds may moderate diurnal ranges but are unlikely to produce sharper drops absent a stronger frontal system. Updated model runs and official observations in the coming hours represent key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$340End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies indicate overnight minimum temperatures in Shenzhen on September 23 near 26°C, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure and warm, humid maritime air typical of the post-monsoon transition. Historical September lows average 24–26°C, with limited cooling from seasonal patterns or recent rain events supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 26–27°C outcomes. Persistent cloud cover and light easterly winds may moderate diurnal ranges but are unlikely to produce sharper drops absent a stronger frontal system. Updated model runs and official observations in the coming hours represent key variables that could shift trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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