Current forecast models from sources like GFS and PAGASA indicate Manila's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the mid-20s°C range, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and scattered thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited overnight. Historical September lows average around 25-26°C, and no nearby tropical systems are steering cooler air or heavy rain bands toward the region. Trader sentiment remains split between the 31°C+ and 21°C-or-below outcomes because model ensembles show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns that could nudge the exact minimum by a few degrees either way, with fresh PAGASA updates and revised runs expected to clarify resolution criteria ahead of the close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 24?
21°C or below 95%
31°C or higher 95%
24°C 40%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
95%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
40%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
39%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
95%
21°C or below 95%
31°C or higher 95%
24°C 40%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
40%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and PAGASA indicate Manila's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the mid-20s°C range, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and scattered thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited overnight. Historical September lows average around 25-26°C, and no nearby tropical systems are steering cooler air or heavy rain bands toward the region. Trader sentiment remains split between the 31°C+ and 21°C-or-below outcomes because model ensembles show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns that could nudge the exact minimum by a few degrees either way, with fresh PAGASA updates and revised runs expected to clarify resolution criteria ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and PAGASA indicate Manila's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the mid-20s°C range, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and scattered thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited overnight. Historical September lows average around 25-26°C, and no nearby tropical systems are steering cooler air or heavy rain bands toward the region. Trader sentiment remains split between the 31°C+ and 21°C-or-below outcomes because model ensembles show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns that could nudge the exact minimum by a few degrees either way, with fresh PAGASA updates and revised runs expected to clarify resolution criteria ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like GFS and PAGASA indicate Manila's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the mid-20s°C range, driven by typical southwest monsoon conditions with persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85-95%, and scattered thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited overnight. Historical September lows average around 25-26°C, and no nearby tropical systems are steering cooler air or heavy rain bands toward the region. Trader sentiment remains split between the 31°C+ and 21°C-or-below outcomes because model ensembles show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns that could nudge the exact minimum by a few degrees either way, with fresh PAGASA updates and revised runs expected to clarify resolution criteria ahead of the close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions