Recent PAGASA and numerical model guidance for Metro Manila show a trough of low pressure and southwest monsoon flow sustaining scattered thunderstorms through September 23, with forecast overnight lows centered near 24–26 °C. Cloud cover and rainfall can suppress radiative cooling and produce localized drops toward 24 °C, while clearer intervals or stronger southerly flow may hold minima closer to the seasonal 25–26 °C baseline. Ensemble spread remains modest, yet the market’s near-even odds between sub-22 °C and 31 °C+ outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty in timing of convective activity and exact wind-driven mixing ahead of the final 24-hour observational window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 23?
21°C or below 80%
31°C or higher 79%
22°C 39%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
80%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
22%
25°C
22%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
21%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
79%
21°C or below 80%
31°C or higher 79%
22°C 39%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
80%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
22%
28°C
$0 Vol.
21%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA and numerical model guidance for Metro Manila show a trough of low pressure and southwest monsoon flow sustaining scattered thunderstorms through September 23, with forecast overnight lows centered near 24–26 °C. Cloud cover and rainfall can suppress radiative cooling and produce localized drops toward 24 °C, while clearer intervals or stronger southerly flow may hold minima closer to the seasonal 25–26 °C baseline. Ensemble spread remains modest, yet the market’s near-even odds between sub-22 °C and 31 °C+ outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty in timing of convective activity and exact wind-driven mixing ahead of the final 24-hour observational window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA and numerical model guidance for Metro Manila show a trough of low pressure and southwest monsoon flow sustaining scattered thunderstorms through September 23, with forecast overnight lows centered near 24–26 °C. Cloud cover and rainfall can suppress radiative cooling and produce localized drops toward 24 °C, while clearer intervals or stronger southerly flow may hold minima closer to the seasonal 25–26 °C baseline. Ensemble spread remains modest, yet the market’s near-even odds between sub-22 °C and 31 °C+ outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty in timing of convective activity and exact wind-driven mixing ahead of the final 24-hour observational window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent PAGASA and numerical model guidance for Metro Manila show a trough of low pressure and southwest monsoon flow sustaining scattered thunderstorms through September 23, with forecast overnight lows centered near 24–26 °C. Cloud cover and rainfall can suppress radiative cooling and produce localized drops toward 24 °C, while clearer intervals or stronger southerly flow may hold minima closer to the seasonal 25–26 °C baseline. Ensemble spread remains modest, yet the market’s near-even odds between sub-22 °C and 31 °C+ outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty in timing of convective activity and exact wind-driven mixing ahead of the final 24-hour observational window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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