**Forecast uncertainty for Qingdao’s September 24 minimum stems primarily from an approaching cloud and rain system expected to moderate nocturnal cooling.** Official guidance and ensemble models show a daily low near 21–23 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and a 40–45 % chance of rain, conditions that limit radiative heat loss compared with clear nights. Coastal sea-breeze effects and higher dew points further support this range, while historical September minima average around 18 °C. The market’s near-even split between sub-17 °C and 27 °C-plus outcomes reflects divergence among short-range models on whether the system arrives early enough or intensifies sufficiently to push the minimum noticeably lower or allow clearer skies and higher readings. Updated model runs and surface observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 24?
17°C or below 100%
27°C or higher 98%
18°C 40%
19°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
17°C or below
100%
18°C
40%
19°C
40%
20°C
39%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C
39%
27°C or higher
98%
17°C or below 100%
27°C or higher 98%
18°C 40%
19°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty for Qingdao’s September 24 minimum stems primarily from an approaching cloud and rain system expected to moderate nocturnal cooling.** Official guidance and ensemble models show a daily low near 21–23 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and a 40–45 % chance of rain, conditions that limit radiative heat loss compared with clear nights. Coastal sea-breeze effects and higher dew points further support this range, while historical September minima average around 18 °C. The market’s near-even split between sub-17 °C and 27 °C-plus outcomes reflects divergence among short-range models on whether the system arrives early enough or intensifies sufficiently to push the minimum noticeably lower or allow clearer skies and higher readings. Updated model runs and surface observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty for Qingdao’s September 24 minimum stems primarily from an approaching cloud and rain system expected to moderate nocturnal cooling.** Official guidance and ensemble models show a daily low near 21–23 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and a 40–45 % chance of rain, conditions that limit radiative heat loss compared with clear nights. Coastal sea-breeze effects and higher dew points further support this range, while historical September minima average around 18 °C. The market’s near-even split between sub-17 °C and 27 °C-plus outcomes reflects divergence among short-range models on whether the system arrives early enough or intensifies sufficiently to push the minimum noticeably lower or allow clearer skies and higher readings. Updated model runs and surface observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty for Qingdao’s September 24 minimum stems primarily from an approaching cloud and rain system expected to moderate nocturnal cooling.** Official guidance and ensemble models show a daily low near 21–23 °C under mostly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and a 40–45 % chance of rain, conditions that limit radiative heat loss compared with clear nights. Coastal sea-breeze effects and higher dew points further support this range, while historical September minima average around 18 °C. The market’s near-even split between sub-17 °C and 27 °C-plus outcomes reflects divergence among short-range models on whether the system arrives early enough or intensifies sufficiently to push the minimum noticeably lower or allow clearer skies and higher readings. Updated model runs and surface observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions