Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 21–23°C in Qingdao on September 23, driven by persistent southerly flow, stable high pressure, and absence of significant cold-air advection or frontal passages. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea further limits overnight cooling, with historical September minima typically around 18°C providing context for the mild pattern. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered across 13–23°C thresholds because short-range model runs show minor spread in exact overnight lows tied to wind shifts and cloud cover variations, while the two-day lead time leaves room for last-minute adjustments before resolution. Upcoming NHC-style regional updates and local observational data will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 23?
23°C or higher 55%
16°C 32%
13°C or below 28%
17°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
28%
14°C
20%
15°C
22%
16°C
32%
17°C
28%
18°C
21%
19°C
20%
20°C
9%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
55%
23°C or higher 55%
16°C 32%
13°C or below 28%
17°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$5 Vol.
32%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
9%
21°C
$100 Vol.
2%
22°C
$100 Vol.
5%
23°C or higher
$100 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 21–23°C in Qingdao on September 23, driven by persistent southerly flow, stable high pressure, and absence of significant cold-air advection or frontal passages. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea further limits overnight cooling, with historical September minima typically around 18°C providing context for the mild pattern. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered across 13–23°C thresholds because short-range model runs show minor spread in exact overnight lows tied to wind shifts and cloud cover variations, while the two-day lead time leaves room for last-minute adjustments before resolution. Upcoming NHC-style regional updates and local observational data will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$305End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 21–23°C in Qingdao on September 23, driven by persistent southerly flow, stable high pressure, and absence of significant cold-air advection or frontal passages. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea further limits overnight cooling, with historical September minima typically around 18°C providing context for the mild pattern. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered across 13–23°C thresholds because short-range model runs show minor spread in exact overnight lows tied to wind shifts and cloud cover variations, while the two-day lead time leaves room for last-minute adjustments before resolution. Upcoming NHC-style regional updates and local observational data will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$305End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 21–23°C in Qingdao on September 23, driven by persistent southerly flow, stable high pressure, and absence of significant cold-air advection or frontal passages. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea further limits overnight cooling, with historical September minima typically around 18°C providing context for the mild pattern. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered across 13–23°C thresholds because short-range model runs show minor spread in exact overnight lows tied to wind shifts and cloud cover variations, while the two-day lead time leaves room for last-minute adjustments before resolution. Upcoming NHC-style regional updates and local observational data will refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions