Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a daytime high of 26°C in Qingdao on September 23 under multi-cloud skies with southerly winds at 3-4 levels, moderating temperatures amid the seasonal shift toward autumn. This consensus, consistent across multiple 15-day outlooks, supports elevated market-implied odds for 30°C (56%) by highlighting uncertainty in model runs and the potential for localized warming from onshore flow or brief clearing. Coastal influences, including sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms and stable high pressure, limit rapid intensification while cloud cover caps peak readings below recent 28-29°C observations. Traders appear focused on the narrow window before resolution, with any late model shifts in steering patterns or insolation likely to adjust implied probabilities for the 29°C or 31°C+ tiers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 23?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 23?
30°C 55%
31°C or higher 29%
29°C 16%
28°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
16%
30°C
55%
31°C or higher
29%
30°C 55%
31°C or higher 29%
29°C 16%
28°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
$811 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$43 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$200 Vol.
1%
26°C
$185 Vol.
1%
27°C
$304 Vol.
2%
28°C
$421 Vol.
2%
29°C
$963 Vol.
16%
30°C
$1,388 Vol.
55%
31°C or higher
$1,331 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a daytime high of 26°C in Qingdao on September 23 under multi-cloud skies with southerly winds at 3-4 levels, moderating temperatures amid the seasonal shift toward autumn. This consensus, consistent across multiple 15-day outlooks, supports elevated market-implied odds for 30°C (56%) by highlighting uncertainty in model runs and the potential for localized warming from onshore flow or brief clearing. Coastal influences, including sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms and stable high pressure, limit rapid intensification while cloud cover caps peak readings below recent 28-29°C observations. Traders appear focused on the narrow window before resolution, with any late model shifts in steering patterns or insolation likely to adjust implied probabilities for the 29°C or 31°C+ tiers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$5,717End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a daytime high of 26°C in Qingdao on September 23 under multi-cloud skies with southerly winds at 3-4 levels, moderating temperatures amid the seasonal shift toward autumn. This consensus, consistent across multiple 15-day outlooks, supports elevated market-implied odds for 30°C (56%) by highlighting uncertainty in model runs and the potential for localized warming from onshore flow or brief clearing. Coastal influences, including sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms and stable high pressure, limit rapid intensification while cloud cover caps peak readings below recent 28-29°C observations. Traders appear focused on the narrow window before resolution, with any late model shifts in steering patterns or insolation likely to adjust implied probabilities for the 29°C or 31°C+ tiers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,717End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources project a daytime high of 26°C in Qingdao on September 23 under multi-cloud skies with southerly winds at 3-4 levels, moderating temperatures amid the seasonal shift toward autumn. This consensus, consistent across multiple 15-day outlooks, supports elevated market-implied odds for 30°C (56%) by highlighting uncertainty in model runs and the potential for localized warming from onshore flow or brief clearing. Coastal influences, including sea surface temperatures near seasonal norms and stable high pressure, limit rapid intensification while cloud cover caps peak readings below recent 28-29°C observations. Traders appear focused on the narrow window before resolution, with any late model shifts in steering patterns or insolation likely to adjust implied probabilities for the 29°C or 31°C+ tiers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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