Recent forecasts indicate a cold front advancing over São Paulo has sharply lowered temperatures, with models from sources like Met Office and Yr.no projecting a September 24 high near 16–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southeasterly flow advecting cooler air masses. This follows a rapid drop from 31°C on September 21 to around 23–25°C on the 22nd, consistent with seasonal spring variability but amplified by the frontal passage suppressing daytime heating. Trader sentiment favoring 23°C or higher at 49% implied probability likely reflects model spread and potential for partial recovery, while clustered probabilities around 18–22°C align with current consensus runs showing limited warming before the system departs. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
20°C 25%
21°C 25%
19°C 23%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
13°C or below
4%
14°C
4%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
10%
18°C
19%
19°C
23%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
10%
23°C or higher
9%
20°C 25%
21°C 25%
19°C 23%
18°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
13°C or below
$10 Vol.
4%
14°C
$10 Vol.
4%
15°C
$0 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$0 Vol.
10%
23°C or higher
$70 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate a cold front advancing over São Paulo has sharply lowered temperatures, with models from sources like Met Office and Yr.no projecting a September 24 high near 16–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southeasterly flow advecting cooler air masses. This follows a rapid drop from 31°C on September 21 to around 23–25°C on the 22nd, consistent with seasonal spring variability but amplified by the frontal passage suppressing daytime heating. Trader sentiment favoring 23°C or higher at 49% implied probability likely reflects model spread and potential for partial recovery, while clustered probabilities around 18–22°C align with current consensus runs showing limited warming before the system departs. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$90End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate a cold front advancing over São Paulo has sharply lowered temperatures, with models from sources like Met Office and Yr.no projecting a September 24 high near 16–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southeasterly flow advecting cooler air masses. This follows a rapid drop from 31°C on September 21 to around 23–25°C on the 22nd, consistent with seasonal spring variability but amplified by the frontal passage suppressing daytime heating. Trader sentiment favoring 23°C or higher at 49% implied probability likely reflects model spread and potential for partial recovery, while clustered probabilities around 18–22°C align with current consensus runs showing limited warming before the system departs. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$90End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts indicate a cold front advancing over São Paulo has sharply lowered temperatures, with models from sources like Met Office and Yr.no projecting a September 24 high near 16–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and southeasterly flow advecting cooler air masses. This follows a rapid drop from 31°C on September 21 to around 23–25°C on the 22nd, consistent with seasonal spring variability but amplified by the frontal passage suppressing daytime heating. Trader sentiment favoring 23°C or higher at 49% implied probability likely reflects model spread and potential for partial recovery, while clustered probabilities around 18–22°C align with current consensus runs showing limited warming before the system departs. Updated numerical weather prediction outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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