**NHC analyses show Tropical Storm Norbert at 45–50 kt maximum sustained winds as of September 12, 2026, with an asymmetric wind field and center displaced from its deepest convection.** Increasing westerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are forecast to halt any modest near-term intensification and drive steady weakening beginning September 13. Model consensus, including HCCA and GDMI, projects the system turning westward into stronger shear across the central Pacific, leading to degeneration into a remnant low by midweek and dissipation east-southeast of Hawaii. These official intensity and track guidance updates explain the market-implied 60% probability that Norbert will not reach the 64 kt hurricane threshold before environmental conditions suppress further development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
0% chance
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Sep 21, 2026
0% chance
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Sep 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**NHC analyses show Tropical Storm Norbert at 45–50 kt maximum sustained winds as of September 12, 2026, with an asymmetric wind field and center displaced from its deepest convection.** Increasing westerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are forecast to halt any modest near-term intensification and drive steady weakening beginning September 13. Model consensus, including HCCA and GDMI, projects the system turning westward into stronger shear across the central Pacific, leading to degeneration into a remnant low by midweek and dissipation east-southeast of Hawaii. These official intensity and track guidance updates explain the market-implied 60% probability that Norbert will not reach the 64 kt hurricane threshold before environmental conditions suppress further development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$222End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**NHC analyses show Tropical Storm Norbert at 45–50 kt maximum sustained winds as of September 12, 2026, with an asymmetric wind field and center displaced from its deepest convection.** Increasing westerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are forecast to halt any modest near-term intensification and drive steady weakening beginning September 13. Model consensus, including HCCA and GDMI, projects the system turning westward into stronger shear across the central Pacific, leading to degeneration into a remnant low by midweek and dissipation east-southeast of Hawaii. These official intensity and track guidance updates explain the market-implied 60% probability that Norbert will not reach the 64 kt hurricane threshold before environmental conditions suppress further development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Volume
$222End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...**NHC analyses show Tropical Storm Norbert at 45–50 kt maximum sustained winds as of September 12, 2026, with an asymmetric wind field and center displaced from its deepest convection.** Increasing westerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are forecast to halt any modest near-term intensification and drive steady weakening beginning September 13. Model consensus, including HCCA and GDMI, projects the system turning westward into stronger shear across the central Pacific, leading to degeneration into a remnant low by midweek and dissipation east-southeast of Hawaii. These official intensity and track guidance updates explain the market-implied 60% probability that Norbert will not reach the 64 kt hurricane threshold before environmental conditions suppress further development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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