Recent National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate sunny skies with highs near 95–96°F for Houston on September 23, supported by light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover that favor strong daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading 94–95°F and 96–97°F bins, reflecting above-normal late-September conditions amid a persistent warm, humid pattern where recent daily maxima have reached the mid- to upper 90s. Limited moisture and stable steering flow reduce thunderstorm chances that could otherwise cap temperatures, while heat-index values near 105°F underscore the thermodynamic setup. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 23?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 23?
94-95°F 54%
96-97°F 29%
92-93°F 10%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
5%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
54%
96-97°F
29%
98-99°F
7%
100-101°F
4%
102-103°F
3%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 54%
96-97°F 29%
92-93°F 10%
90-91°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
85°F or below
$100 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$53 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$9 Vol.
7%
92-93°F
$55 Vol.
10%
94-95°F
$71 Vol.
54%
96-97°F
$67 Vol.
29%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
7%
100-101°F
$49 Vol.
4%
102-103°F
$12 Vol.
3%
104°F or higher
$152 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate sunny skies with highs near 95–96°F for Houston on September 23, supported by light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover that favor strong daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading 94–95°F and 96–97°F bins, reflecting above-normal late-September conditions amid a persistent warm, humid pattern where recent daily maxima have reached the mid- to upper 90s. Limited moisture and stable steering flow reduce thunderstorm chances that could otherwise cap temperatures, while heat-index values near 105°F underscore the thermodynamic setup. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$663End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate sunny skies with highs near 95–96°F for Houston on September 23, supported by light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover that favor strong daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading 94–95°F and 96–97°F bins, reflecting above-normal late-September conditions amid a persistent warm, humid pattern where recent daily maxima have reached the mid- to upper 90s. Limited moisture and stable steering flow reduce thunderstorm chances that could otherwise cap temperatures, while heat-index values near 105°F underscore the thermodynamic setup. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$663End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate sunny skies with highs near 95–96°F for Houston on September 23, supported by light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover that favor strong daytime heating. This consensus aligns with the market’s leading 94–95°F and 96–97°F bins, reflecting above-normal late-September conditions amid a persistent warm, humid pattern where recent daily maxima have reached the mid- to upper 90s. Limited moisture and stable steering flow reduce thunderstorm chances that could otherwise cap temperatures, while heat-index values near 105°F underscore the thermodynamic setup. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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