**Forecast models and official guidance from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy conditions with southeast winds of 3–4 levels.** This setup limits radiational cooling compared to clear skies, while moderate humidity and light possible drizzle in some runs support the clustered market odds favoring 19–21°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small variations in cloud thickness or wind mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages around 18°C provide baseline context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key upcoming data points that could refine probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 17?
29°C or higher 74%
19°C or below 40%
25°C 40%
20°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
19°C or below
40%
20°C
31%
21°C
28%
22°C
21%
23°C
18%
24°C
14%
25°C
40%
26°C
13%
27°C
13%
28°C
13%
29°C or higher
74%
29°C or higher 74%
19°C or below 40%
25°C 40%
20°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
31%
21°C
$0 Vol.
28%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$0 Vol.
14%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
13%
27°C
$0 Vol.
13%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy conditions with southeast winds of 3–4 levels.** This setup limits radiational cooling compared to clear skies, while moderate humidity and light possible drizzle in some runs support the clustered market odds favoring 19–21°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small variations in cloud thickness or wind mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages around 18°C provide baseline context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key upcoming data points that could refine probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy conditions with southeast winds of 3–4 levels.** This setup limits radiational cooling compared to clear skies, while moderate humidity and light possible drizzle in some runs support the clustered market odds favoring 19–21°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small variations in cloud thickness or wind mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages around 18°C provide baseline context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key upcoming data points that could refine probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy conditions with southeast winds of 3–4 levels.** This setup limits radiational cooling compared to clear skies, while moderate humidity and light possible drizzle in some runs support the clustered market odds favoring 19–21°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small variations in cloud thickness or wind mixing can shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical September averages around 18°C provide baseline context, but current warm advection keeps values elevated. Updated model runs and local observations ahead of the overnight period represent the key upcoming data points that could refine probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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