Forecast consensus from multiple models places Milan's maximum temperature on September 15 near 27–28 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with light easterly flow, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover that favors daytime radiative heating. This setup aligns with the market's leading probabilities for those two outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability from current guidance. September's declining solar insolation and regional climatology cap extremes, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduces downside risk. Updated short-range runs and official observations on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds if they deviate from the 26–28 °C envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 15?
27°C 45%
28°C 37%
26°C 13%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
13%
27°C
45%
28°C
37%
29°C
7%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 45%
28°C 37%
26°C 13%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
1%
23°C
$10 Vol.
1%
24°C
$6 Vol.
2%
25°C
$458 Vol.
3%
26°C
$309 Vol.
13%
27°C
$515 Vol.
45%
28°C
$665 Vol.
37%
29°C
$416 Vol.
7%
30°C
$10 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models places Milan's maximum temperature on September 15 near 27–28 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with light easterly flow, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover that favors daytime radiative heating. This setup aligns with the market's leading probabilities for those two outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability from current guidance. September's declining solar insolation and regional climatology cap extremes, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduces downside risk. Updated short-range runs and official observations on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds if they deviate from the 26–28 °C envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,419End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple models places Milan's maximum temperature on September 15 near 27–28 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with light easterly flow, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover that favors daytime radiative heating. This setup aligns with the market's leading probabilities for those two outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability from current guidance. September's declining solar insolation and regional climatology cap extremes, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduces downside risk. Updated short-range runs and official observations on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds if they deviate from the 26–28 °C envelope.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,419End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from multiple models places Milan's maximum temperature on September 15 near 27–28 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with light easterly flow, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover that favors daytime radiative heating. This setup aligns with the market's leading probabilities for those two outcomes, reflecting trader assessment of limited variability from current guidance. September's declining solar insolation and regional climatology cap extremes, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduces downside risk. Updated short-range runs and official observations on the day itself remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift implied odds if they deviate from the 26–28 °C envelope.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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