**Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and the Met Office indicate a high near 28°C in Madrid today under clear skies and light easterly flow.** Stable high pressure supports strong solar heating while typical late-September boundary-layer mixing and modest dew points limit further warming, keeping values aligned with the 27–28°C range that dominates market-implied odds. Recent GFS and regional runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with no incoming fronts or enhanced cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Historical September maxima average around 25–27°C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to 29°C or higher. Real-time station observations from central Madrid will refine the exact peak through the afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 72%
27°C 24%
29°C 5%
26°C 3%
$22,033 Vol.
$22,033 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
24%
28°C
72%
29°C
5%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 72%
27°C 24%
29°C 5%
26°C 3%
$22,033 Vol.
$22,033 Vol.
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$905 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$988 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,552 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$596 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,779 Vol.
3%
27°C
$3,869 Vol.
24%
28°C
$5,149 Vol.
72%
29°C
$5,772 Vol.
5%
30°C
$802 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$284 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and the Met Office indicate a high near 28°C in Madrid today under clear skies and light easterly flow.** Stable high pressure supports strong solar heating while typical late-September boundary-layer mixing and modest dew points limit further warming, keeping values aligned with the 27–28°C range that dominates market-implied odds. Recent GFS and regional runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with no incoming fronts or enhanced cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Historical September maxima average around 25–27°C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to 29°C or higher. Real-time station observations from central Madrid will refine the exact peak through the afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$22,033End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and the Met Office indicate a high near 28°C in Madrid today under clear skies and light easterly flow.** Stable high pressure supports strong solar heating while typical late-September boundary-layer mixing and modest dew points limit further warming, keeping values aligned with the 27–28°C range that dominates market-implied odds. Recent GFS and regional runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with no incoming fronts or enhanced cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Historical September maxima average around 25–27°C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to 29°C or higher. Real-time station observations from central Madrid will refine the exact peak through the afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,033End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and the Met Office indicate a high near 28°C in Madrid today under clear skies and light easterly flow.** Stable high pressure supports strong solar heating while typical late-September boundary-layer mixing and modest dew points limit further warming, keeping values aligned with the 27–28°C range that dominates market-implied odds. Recent GFS and regional runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with no incoming fronts or enhanced cloud cover to alter the trajectory. Historical September maxima average around 25–27°C, providing context for why traders assign only modest probability to 29°C or higher. Real-time station observations from central Madrid will refine the exact peak through the afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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