Widespread cloud cover and light to moderate rain tied to the start of Chongqing’s autumn rainy season are suppressing daytime heating, positioning 25°C as the clear market favorite at 68.5% implied probability. Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and global models consistently project a high near 25°C on September 20 under overcast skies with precipitation chances of 50–80%, limiting solar radiation and keeping afternoon readings in the mid-20s. Recent observations show temperatures hovering around 22–24°C through midday, aligning with model consensus that rules out stronger warming. The 26°C outcome at 23% reflects minor upside risk if breaks in cloud cover occur, while probabilities above 27°C remain negligible given the entrenched moisture and stable steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on September 20?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 20?
25°C 62%
26°C 24%
27°C 5%
24°C 4.3%
$33,567 Vol.
$33,567 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
4%
25°C
65%
26°C
25%
27°C
5%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
25°C 62%
26°C 24%
27°C 5%
24°C 4.3%
$33,567 Vol.
$33,567 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
23°C or below
$6,701 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15,387 Vol.
4%
25°C
$3,196 Vol.
65%
26°C
$1,804 Vol.
25%
27°C
$2,147 Vol.
5%
28°C
$2,629 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,239 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Widespread cloud cover and light to moderate rain tied to the start of Chongqing’s autumn rainy season are suppressing daytime heating, positioning 25°C as the clear market favorite at 68.5% implied probability. Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and global models consistently project a high near 25°C on September 20 under overcast skies with precipitation chances of 50–80%, limiting solar radiation and keeping afternoon readings in the mid-20s. Recent observations show temperatures hovering around 22–24°C through midday, aligning with model consensus that rules out stronger warming. The 26°C outcome at 23% reflects minor upside risk if breaks in cloud cover occur, while probabilities above 27°C remain negligible given the entrenched moisture and stable steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$33,567End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Widespread cloud cover and light to moderate rain tied to the start of Chongqing’s autumn rainy season are suppressing daytime heating, positioning 25°C as the clear market favorite at 68.5% implied probability. Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and global models consistently project a high near 25°C on September 20 under overcast skies with precipitation chances of 50–80%, limiting solar radiation and keeping afternoon readings in the mid-20s. Recent observations show temperatures hovering around 22–24°C through midday, aligning with model consensus that rules out stronger warming. The 26°C outcome at 23% reflects minor upside risk if breaks in cloud cover occur, while probabilities above 27°C remain negligible given the entrenched moisture and stable steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,567End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...Widespread cloud cover and light to moderate rain tied to the start of Chongqing’s autumn rainy season are suppressing daytime heating, positioning 25°C as the clear market favorite at 68.5% implied probability. Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and global models consistently project a high near 25°C on September 20 under overcast skies with precipitation chances of 50–80%, limiting solar radiation and keeping afternoon readings in the mid-20s. Recent observations show temperatures hovering around 22–24°C through midday, aligning with model consensus that rules out stronger warming. The 26°C outcome at 23% reflects minor upside risk if breaks in cloud cover occur, while probabilities above 27°C remain negligible given the entrenched moisture and stable steering patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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