Recent forecasts for Istanbul on September 20, 2026, converge on a daytime high near 24–26°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate stable high-pressure influence moderating temperatures after early-September warmth, consistent with climatological norms of 23–24°C for late September. Trader emphasis on 24°C (47.5%) and 25°C (25.5%) reflects this model consensus, while lower probabilities for 22–23°C or 26°C+ account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight timing shifts in maximum readings. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 20?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 20?
24°C 48%
22°C 34%
23°C 34%
26°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
6%
22°C
34%
23°C
34%
24°C
48%
25°C
24%
26°C
33%
27°C
7%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
24°C 48%
22°C 34%
23°C 34%
26°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
20°C or below
$96 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
6%
22°C
$0 Vol.
34%
23°C
$0 Vol.
34%
24°C
$59 Vol.
48%
25°C
$15 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
33%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$6 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Istanbul on September 20, 2026, converge on a daytime high near 24–26°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate stable high-pressure influence moderating temperatures after early-September warmth, consistent with climatological norms of 23–24°C for late September. Trader emphasis on 24°C (47.5%) and 25°C (25.5%) reflects this model consensus, while lower probabilities for 22–23°C or 26°C+ account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight timing shifts in maximum readings. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$175End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Istanbul on September 20, 2026, converge on a daytime high near 24–26°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate stable high-pressure influence moderating temperatures after early-September warmth, consistent with climatological norms of 23–24°C for late September. Trader emphasis on 24°C (47.5%) and 25°C (25.5%) reflects this model consensus, while lower probabilities for 22–23°C or 26°C+ account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight timing shifts in maximum readings. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$175End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Istanbul on September 20, 2026, converge on a daytime high near 24–26°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with northeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h and minimal precipitation risk. Multiple numerical weather prediction outputs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate stable high-pressure influence moderating temperatures after early-September warmth, consistent with climatological norms of 23–24°C for late September. Trader emphasis on 24°C (47.5%) and 25°C (25.5%) reflects this model consensus, while lower probabilities for 22–23°C or 26°C+ account for remaining ensemble spread and potential for slight timing shifts in maximum readings. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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