Forecasts from PAGASA and multiple models indicate the southwest monsoon will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers over Manila on September 18, supporting typical minimum temperatures of 25–27°C. This aligns with historical September baselines where overnight lows rarely fall below 24°C or exceed 28°C due to high humidity and limited radiative cooling. The closely matched market-implied odds on 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher reflect trader uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates amid variable cloud cover and potential convective activity, while mid-20s outcomes capture the narrower scientific consensus from current model runs. Updated observations overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 18?
20°C or below 84%
30°C or higher 84%
27°C 40%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
84%
21°C
13%
22°C
17%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
22%
26°C
25%
27°C
24%
28°C
39%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
84%
20°C or below 84%
30°C or higher 84%
27°C 40%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
84%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
25%
27°C
$32 Vol.
24%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from PAGASA and multiple models indicate the southwest monsoon will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers over Manila on September 18, supporting typical minimum temperatures of 25–27°C. This aligns with historical September baselines where overnight lows rarely fall below 24°C or exceed 28°C due to high humidity and limited radiative cooling. The closely matched market-implied odds on 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher reflect trader uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates amid variable cloud cover and potential convective activity, while mid-20s outcomes capture the narrower scientific consensus from current model runs. Updated observations overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from PAGASA and multiple models indicate the southwest monsoon will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers over Manila on September 18, supporting typical minimum temperatures of 25–27°C. This aligns with historical September baselines where overnight lows rarely fall below 24°C or exceed 28°C due to high humidity and limited radiative cooling. The closely matched market-implied odds on 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher reflect trader uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates amid variable cloud cover and potential convective activity, while mid-20s outcomes capture the narrower scientific consensus from current model runs. Updated observations overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from PAGASA and multiple models indicate the southwest monsoon will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers over Manila on September 18, supporting typical minimum temperatures of 25–27°C. This aligns with historical September baselines where overnight lows rarely fall below 24°C or exceed 28°C due to high humidity and limited radiative cooling. The closely matched market-implied odds on 20°C or below versus 30°C or higher reflect trader uncertainty around exact nocturnal cooling rates amid variable cloud cover and potential convective activity, while mid-20s outcomes capture the narrower scientific consensus from current model runs. Updated observations overnight will likely refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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