Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 16?
6°C or below 96%
16°C or higher 96%
9°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
96%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
40%
10°C
39%
11°C
21%
12°C
21%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C or higher
96%
6°C or below 96%
16°C or higher 96%
9°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 11–13°C in Warsaw on September 16 under mostly clear skies and southerly winds, aligning with climatological norms for mid-September. This consensus from sources such as GFS and local analyses drives elevated implied probabilities for the 9–15°C range, as recent model runs show limited overnight cooling potential amid stable high pressure. The leading 16°C-or-higher outcome at 49% reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute warm advection, while the low 8% probability for 6°C or below underscores the unlikelihood of strong radiational cooling or northerly shifts. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could further refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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