Recent forecast models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely fall between 13–15°C, driven by southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 12–14°C limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus from European guidance shows modest variability tied to exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the low by 2–3°C either way. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market odds on sub-9°C or 19°C+ extremes, as traders weigh the risk of clearer skies enhancing cooling against the potential for warmer advection or reduced nocturnal mixing. Updated runs from national meteorological services will likely tighten the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 14?
9°C or below 95%
19°C or higher 95%
12°C 40%
10°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
95%
10°C
39%
11°C
38%
12°C
40%
13°C
22%
14°C
39%
15°C
12%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C or higher
95%
9°C or below 95%
19°C or higher 95%
12°C 40%
10°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
10°C
$40 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$54 Vol.
12%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely fall between 13–15°C, driven by southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 12–14°C limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus from European guidance shows modest variability tied to exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the low by 2–3°C either way. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market odds on sub-9°C or 19°C+ extremes, as traders weigh the risk of clearer skies enhancing cooling against the potential for warmer advection or reduced nocturnal mixing. Updated runs from national meteorological services will likely tighten the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$94End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely fall between 13–15°C, driven by southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 12–14°C limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus from European guidance shows modest variability tied to exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the low by 2–3°C either way. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market odds on sub-9°C or 19°C+ extremes, as traders weigh the risk of clearer skies enhancing cooling against the potential for warmer advection or reduced nocturnal mixing. Updated runs from national meteorological services will likely tighten the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on September 14 will likely fall between 13–15°C, driven by southwesterly flow under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 12–14°C limiting radiative cooling. Model consensus from European guidance shows modest variability tied to exact cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the low by 2–3°C either way. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market odds on sub-9°C or 19°C+ extremes, as traders weigh the risk of clearer skies enhancing cooling against the potential for warmer advection or reduced nocturnal mixing. Updated runs from national meteorological services will likely tighten the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions