**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a Moscow nighttime low near 11–13 °C on September 17, driven by southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling.** Ensemble spreads, however, keep substantial probability on both cooler clear-sky outcomes below 8 °C and milder advection scenarios above 13 °C, which aligns with the near-even market split at 41 % for each tail. Historical September 17 lows average roughly 8 °C, so the present setup sits on the warmer side of climatology yet remains sensitive to small shifts in overnight cloud fraction or wind speed. Traders are therefore weighting the latest model runs and any updated guidance from regional meteorological centers that could narrow the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 17?
3°C or below 78%
13°C or higher 77%
7°C 40%
11°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
3°C or below
78%
4°C
15%
5°C
16%
6°C
21%
7°C
40%
8°C
25%
9°C
25%
10°C
22%
11°C
40%
12°C
16%
13°C or higher
77%
3°C or below 78%
13°C or higher 77%
7°C 40%
11°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
78%
4°C
$0 Vol.
15%
5°C
$0 Vol.
16%
6°C
$5 Vol.
21%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
25%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
16%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a Moscow nighttime low near 11–13 °C on September 17, driven by southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling.** Ensemble spreads, however, keep substantial probability on both cooler clear-sky outcomes below 8 °C and milder advection scenarios above 13 °C, which aligns with the near-even market split at 41 % for each tail. Historical September 17 lows average roughly 8 °C, so the present setup sits on the warmer side of climatology yet remains sensitive to small shifts in overnight cloud fraction or wind speed. Traders are therefore weighting the latest model runs and any updated guidance from regional meteorological centers that could narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a Moscow nighttime low near 11–13 °C on September 17, driven by southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling.** Ensemble spreads, however, keep substantial probability on both cooler clear-sky outcomes below 8 °C and milder advection scenarios above 13 °C, which aligns with the near-even market split at 41 % for each tail. Historical September 17 lows average roughly 8 °C, so the present setup sits on the warmer side of climatology yet remains sensitive to small shifts in overnight cloud fraction or wind speed. Traders are therefore weighting the latest model runs and any updated guidance from regional meteorological centers that could narrow the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast consensus from global models points to a Moscow nighttime low near 11–13 °C on September 17, driven by southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits radiational cooling.** Ensemble spreads, however, keep substantial probability on both cooler clear-sky outcomes below 8 °C and milder advection scenarios above 13 °C, which aligns with the near-even market split at 41 % for each tail. Historical September 17 lows average roughly 8 °C, so the present setup sits on the warmer side of climatology yet remains sensitive to small shifts in overnight cloud fraction or wind speed. Traders are therefore weighting the latest model runs and any updated guidance from regional meteorological centers that could narrow the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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