Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered thunderstorms driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in Manila, keeping forecast overnight lows clustered around 25–26°C for September 16. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers through the night, moderating temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs. Trader sentiment clusters on 25–27°C outcomes because these align with both climatological September averages near 25.7°C and the current stable, moist pattern; lower readings would require unexpected clearing, while warmer values hinge on reduced rainfall. New model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 24 hours remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 16?
20°C or below 43%
30°C or higher 43%
26°C 40%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
43%
21°C
13%
22°C
13%
23°C
39%
24°C
19%
25°C
27%
26°C
31%
27°C
32%
28°C
23%
29°C
39%
30°C or higher
43%
20°C or below 43%
30°C or higher 43%
26°C 40%
27°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
43%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$100 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$5 Vol.
31%
27°C
$5 Vol.
32%
28°C
$10 Vol.
23%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered thunderstorms driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in Manila, keeping forecast overnight lows clustered around 25–26°C for September 16. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers through the night, moderating temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs. Trader sentiment clusters on 25–27°C outcomes because these align with both climatological September averages near 25.7°C and the current stable, moist pattern; lower readings would require unexpected clearing, while warmer values hinge on reduced rainfall. New model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 24 hours remain key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered thunderstorms driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in Manila, keeping forecast overnight lows clustered around 25–26°C for September 16. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers through the night, moderating temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs. Trader sentiment clusters on 25–27°C outcomes because these align with both climatological September averages near 25.7°C and the current stable, moist pattern; lower readings would require unexpected clearing, while warmer values hinge on reduced rainfall. New model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 24 hours remain key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered thunderstorms driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling in Manila, keeping forecast overnight lows clustered around 25–26°C for September 16. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple global models indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers through the night, moderating temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs. Trader sentiment clusters on 25–27°C outcomes because these align with both climatological September averages near 25.7°C and the current stable, moist pattern; lower readings would require unexpected clearing, while warmer values hinge on reduced rainfall. New model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 24 hours remain key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions