**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and strong winds from approaching Typhoon No. 25 are keeping overnight temperatures elevated in Tokyo, positioning 21–22°C as the most likely minimum on September 21.** Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models (GFS-based) converge on a daily minimum of 21–22°C amid 100% precipitation probability, northeast winds gusting 20+ mph, and near-100% cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 95% and warm advection further suppress the typical nocturnal drop. These conditions differ from September climatology, where Tokyo minima often reach 18–20°C under clearer skies. Trader consensus (48.5% on 22°C, 33% on 21°C) closely tracks this model agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of significant cooling before resolution. Updated model runs and official briefings through the night of September 20–21 will be the key data points that could shift implied probabilities if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 21?
22°C 49%
21°C 31%
23°C 12%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
4%
20°C
7%
21°C
31%
22°C
49%
23°C
12%
24°C
6%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 49%
21°C 31%
23°C 12%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
17°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$236 Vol.
1%
19°C
$231 Vol.
4%
20°C
$213 Vol.
7%
21°C
$370 Vol.
31%
22°C
$528 Vol.
49%
23°C
$511 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and strong winds from approaching Typhoon No. 25 are keeping overnight temperatures elevated in Tokyo, positioning 21–22°C as the most likely minimum on September 21.**
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models (GFS-based) converge on a daily minimum of 21–22°C amid 100% precipitation probability, northeast winds gusting 20+ mph, and near-100% cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 95% and warm advection further suppress the typical nocturnal drop. These conditions differ from September climatology, where Tokyo minima often reach 18–20°C under clearer skies.
Trader consensus (48.5% on 22°C, 33% on 21°C) closely tracks this model agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of significant cooling before resolution. Updated model runs and official briefings through the night of September 20–21 will be the key data points that could shift implied probabilities if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,151End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and strong winds from approaching Typhoon No. 25 are keeping overnight temperatures elevated in Tokyo, positioning 21–22°C as the most likely minimum on September 21.**
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models (GFS-based) converge on a daily minimum of 21–22°C amid 100% precipitation probability, northeast winds gusting 20+ mph, and near-100% cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 95% and warm advection further suppress the typical nocturnal drop. These conditions differ from September climatology, where Tokyo minima often reach 18–20°C under clearer skies.
Trader consensus (48.5% on 22°C, 33% on 21°C) closely tracks this model agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of significant cooling before resolution. Updated model runs and official briefings through the night of September 20–21 will be the key data points that could shift implied probabilities if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,151End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and strong winds from approaching Typhoon No. 25 are keeping overnight temperatures elevated in Tokyo, positioning 21–22°C as the most likely minimum on September 21.** Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple global models (GFS-based) converge on a daily minimum of 21–22°C amid 100% precipitation probability, northeast winds gusting 20+ mph, and near-100% cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 95% and warm advection further suppress the typical nocturnal drop. These conditions differ from September climatology, where Tokyo minima often reach 18–20°C under clearer skies. Trader consensus (48.5% on 22°C, 33% on 21°C) closely tracks this model agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of significant cooling before resolution. Updated model runs and official briefings through the night of September 20–21 will be the key data points that could shift implied probabilities if steering patterns or rainfall intensity change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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