**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 14°C in Madrid on September 17, 2026, driven by a shift to cooler northeasterly flow after recent heat.** Current short-range guidance from sources such as Yr.no and globalmeteo shows daytime highs around 26°C followed by overnight lows of 14°C under mostly clear skies, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate and large diurnal temperature range. The pattern features northerly winds advecting drier, cooler air, which enhances radiational cooling overnight once daytime heating ends. Historical September averages place the typical low near 15°C, so the current setup sits slightly below normal but remains well above record lows near 9°C. Market-implied odds clustering around 12–14°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours, including potential model adjustments to wind strength or cloud cover that could alter the overnight minimum by 1–2°C. No major precipitation or frontal systems are expected to disrupt the clear, stable conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 17?
12°C or below 44%
14°C 24%
13°C 22%
15°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
44%
13°C
22%
14°C
24%
15°C
19%
16°C
11%
17°C
7%
18°C
5%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
12°C or below 44%
14°C 24%
13°C 22%
15°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
44%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
24%
15°C
$6 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
11%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 14°C in Madrid on September 17, 2026, driven by a shift to cooler northeasterly flow after recent heat.**
Current short-range guidance from sources such as Yr.no and globalmeteo shows daytime highs around 26°C followed by overnight lows of 14°C under mostly clear skies, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate and large diurnal temperature range. The pattern features northerly winds advecting drier, cooler air, which enhances radiational cooling overnight once daytime heating ends. Historical September averages place the typical low near 15°C, so the current setup sits slightly below normal but remains well above record lows near 9°C.
Market-implied odds clustering around 12–14°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours, including potential model adjustments to wind strength or cloud cover that could alter the overnight minimum by 1–2°C. No major precipitation or frontal systems are expected to disrupt the clear, stable conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 14°C in Madrid on September 17, 2026, driven by a shift to cooler northeasterly flow after recent heat.**
Current short-range guidance from sources such as Yr.no and globalmeteo shows daytime highs around 26°C followed by overnight lows of 14°C under mostly clear skies, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate and large diurnal temperature range. The pattern features northerly winds advecting drier, cooler air, which enhances radiational cooling overnight once daytime heating ends. Historical September averages place the typical low near 15°C, so the current setup sits slightly below normal but remains well above record lows near 9°C.
Market-implied odds clustering around 12–14°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours, including potential model adjustments to wind strength or cloud cover that could alter the overnight minimum by 1–2°C. No major precipitation or frontal systems are expected to disrupt the clear, stable conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a minimum temperature near 14°C in Madrid on September 17, 2026, driven by a shift to cooler northeasterly flow after recent heat.** Current short-range guidance from sources such as Yr.no and globalmeteo shows daytime highs around 26°C followed by overnight lows of 14°C under mostly clear skies, consistent with Madrid’s continental climate and large diurnal temperature range. The pattern features northerly winds advecting drier, cooler air, which enhances radiational cooling overnight once daytime heating ends. Historical September averages place the typical low near 15°C, so the current setup sits slightly below normal but remains well above record lows near 9°C. Market-implied odds clustering around 12–14°C reflect trader assessment of forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours, including potential model adjustments to wind strength or cloud cover that could alter the overnight minimum by 1–2°C. No major precipitation or frontal systems are expected to disrupt the clear, stable conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions