Current forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight lows near 19–20°C in Istanbul on September 13 under northerly winds of 5–8 m/s, with increasing cloud cover and a chance of evening showers that could limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-September climatology, where clear-sky minima often dip toward 18°C but persistent clouds or precipitation keep readings higher. Trader sentiment remains split between the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails because small shifts in cloud timing or wind strength can swing the minimum by several degrees, while the clustered probabilities around 19–22°C reflect the narrow range most models currently favor ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 13?
15°C or below 88%
25°C or higher 88%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
88%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
22%
19°C
24%
20°C
23%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
18%
25°C or higher
88%
15°C or below 88%
25°C or higher 88%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$5 Vol.
24%
20°C
$3 Vol.
23%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight lows near 19–20°C in Istanbul on September 13 under northerly winds of 5–8 m/s, with increasing cloud cover and a chance of evening showers that could limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-September climatology, where clear-sky minima often dip toward 18°C but persistent clouds or precipitation keep readings higher. Trader sentiment remains split between the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails because small shifts in cloud timing or wind strength can swing the minimum by several degrees, while the clustered probabilities around 19–22°C reflect the narrow range most models currently favor ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight lows near 19–20°C in Istanbul on September 13 under northerly winds of 5–8 m/s, with increasing cloud cover and a chance of evening showers that could limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-September climatology, where clear-sky minima often dip toward 18°C but persistent clouds or precipitation keep readings higher. Trader sentiment remains split between the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails because small shifts in cloud timing or wind strength can swing the minimum by several degrees, while the clustered probabilities around 19–22°C reflect the narrow range most models currently favor ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like GFS and ECMWF point to overnight lows near 19–20°C in Istanbul on September 13 under northerly winds of 5–8 m/s, with increasing cloud cover and a chance of evening showers that could limit radiative cooling. These conditions align with typical early-September climatology, where clear-sky minima often dip toward 18°C but persistent clouds or precipitation keep readings higher. Trader sentiment remains split between the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails because small shifts in cloud timing or wind strength can swing the minimum by several degrees, while the clustered probabilities around 19–22°C reflect the narrow range most models currently favor ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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