Recent official forecasts from meteorological sources indicate mostly clear skies and northeasterly flow over Istanbul through September 12, supporting daytime highs near 28–29°C and overnight lows of 18–20°C under high pressure. This pattern favors moderate radiative cooling at night without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover to trap heat. Model consensus shows limited spread, though slight variations in wind strength or boundary-layer mixing could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, particularly at official urban or airport measurement sites. With leading market outcomes clustered around extremes, traders appear to price in residual uncertainty from short-range forecast revisions and potential local microclimate effects rather than any major synoptic shift. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely refine the exact overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 12?
24°C or higher 85%
14°C or below 68%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
14°C or below
68%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
40%
19°C
22%
20°C
21%
21°C
26%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C or higher
85%
24°C or higher 85%
14°C or below 68%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
68%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
40%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological sources indicate mostly clear skies and northeasterly flow over Istanbul through September 12, supporting daytime highs near 28–29°C and overnight lows of 18–20°C under high pressure. This pattern favors moderate radiative cooling at night without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover to trap heat. Model consensus shows limited spread, though slight variations in wind strength or boundary-layer mixing could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, particularly at official urban or airport measurement sites. With leading market outcomes clustered around extremes, traders appear to price in residual uncertainty from short-range forecast revisions and potential local microclimate effects rather than any major synoptic shift. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely refine the exact overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological sources indicate mostly clear skies and northeasterly flow over Istanbul through September 12, supporting daytime highs near 28–29°C and overnight lows of 18–20°C under high pressure. This pattern favors moderate radiative cooling at night without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover to trap heat. Model consensus shows limited spread, though slight variations in wind strength or boundary-layer mixing could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, particularly at official urban or airport measurement sites. With leading market outcomes clustered around extremes, traders appear to price in residual uncertainty from short-range forecast revisions and potential local microclimate effects rather than any major synoptic shift. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely refine the exact overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from meteorological sources indicate mostly clear skies and northeasterly flow over Istanbul through September 12, supporting daytime highs near 28–29°C and overnight lows of 18–20°C under high pressure. This pattern favors moderate radiative cooling at night without significant advection of cooler air or cloud cover to trap heat. Model consensus shows limited spread, though slight variations in wind strength or boundary-layer mixing could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, particularly at official urban or airport measurement sites. With leading market outcomes clustered around extremes, traders appear to price in residual uncertainty from short-range forecast revisions and potential local microclimate effects rather than any major synoptic shift. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours will likely refine the exact overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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