Latest meteorological guidance from GFS and ECMWF models indicates a stable high-pressure ridge over the region, supporting mostly clear skies and light to moderate northerly flow on September 12. This setup favors a daily maximum near 27–28 °C at standard observing sites, consistent with the upper end of September climatology yet slightly above recent daily averages. Key variables separating the tightly contested 25 °C and 26 °C market outcomes include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any minor onshore breeze effects near the Bosphorus that could shave 1–2 °C off the official reading. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected within the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the thermal maximum reaches or exceeds 27 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 12?
26°C 48%
25°C 44%
27°C 7%
22°C or below 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
5%
25°C
44%
26°C
48%
27°C
7%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C
3%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
2%
26°C 48%
25°C 44%
27°C 7%
22°C or below 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
22°C or below
$36 Vol.
6%
23°C
$27 Vol.
6%
24°C
$114 Vol.
5%
25°C
$85 Vol.
44%
26°C
$295 Vol.
48%
27°C
$27 Vol.
7%
28°C
$30 Vol.
6%
29°C
$28 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological guidance from GFS and ECMWF models indicates a stable high-pressure ridge over the region, supporting mostly clear skies and light to moderate northerly flow on September 12. This setup favors a daily maximum near 27–28 °C at standard observing sites, consistent with the upper end of September climatology yet slightly above recent daily averages. Key variables separating the tightly contested 25 °C and 26 °C market outcomes include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any minor onshore breeze effects near the Bosphorus that could shave 1–2 °C off the official reading. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected within the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the thermal maximum reaches or exceeds 27 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$642End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological guidance from GFS and ECMWF models indicates a stable high-pressure ridge over the region, supporting mostly clear skies and light to moderate northerly flow on September 12. This setup favors a daily maximum near 27–28 °C at standard observing sites, consistent with the upper end of September climatology yet slightly above recent daily averages. Key variables separating the tightly contested 25 °C and 26 °C market outcomes include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any minor onshore breeze effects near the Bosphorus that could shave 1–2 °C off the official reading. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected within the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the thermal maximum reaches or exceeds 27 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$642End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest meteorological guidance from GFS and ECMWF models indicates a stable high-pressure ridge over the region, supporting mostly clear skies and light to moderate northerly flow on September 12. This setup favors a daily maximum near 27–28 °C at standard observing sites, consistent with the upper end of September climatology yet slightly above recent daily averages. Key variables separating the tightly contested 25 °C and 26 °C market outcomes include the precise timing of peak insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and any minor onshore breeze effects near the Bosphorus that could shave 1–2 °C off the official reading. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected within the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the thermal maximum reaches or exceeds 27 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions