Recent forecast models from Turkish meteorological sources and international ensembles indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul through September 11, with persistent northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime maxima near 27–28 °C. Clear, dry conditions and moderate wind speeds limit rapid temperature spikes, while slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create uncertainty around whether the official daily peak reaches or falls short of 26 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C as the implied mode, with nearby outcomes reflecting residual forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 11?
25°C 53%
26°C 25%
24°C 22%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
10%
24°C
22%
25°C
53%
26°C
25%
27°C
9%
28°C
6%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C or higher
4%
25°C 53%
26°C 25%
24°C 22%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
$115 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
10%
24°C
$40 Vol.
22%
25°C
$220 Vol.
53%
26°C
$0 Vol.
25%
27°C
$0 Vol.
9%
28°C
$0 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Turkish meteorological sources and international ensembles indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul through September 11, with persistent northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime maxima near 27–28 °C. Clear, dry conditions and moderate wind speeds limit rapid temperature spikes, while slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create uncertainty around whether the official daily peak reaches or falls short of 26 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C as the implied mode, with nearby outcomes reflecting residual forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$375End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Turkish meteorological sources and international ensembles indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul through September 11, with persistent northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime maxima near 27–28 °C. Clear, dry conditions and moderate wind speeds limit rapid temperature spikes, while slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create uncertainty around whether the official daily peak reaches or falls short of 26 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C as the implied mode, with nearby outcomes reflecting residual forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$375End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from Turkish meteorological sources and international ensembles indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul through September 11, with persistent northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime maxima near 27–28 °C. Clear, dry conditions and moderate wind speeds limit rapid temperature spikes, while slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create uncertainty around whether the official daily peak reaches or falls short of 26 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C as the implied mode, with nearby outcomes reflecting residual forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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