Current forecasts from National Weather Service models and observational data position the overnight minimum in Los Angeles near 70°F on September 12, 2026, as the dominant factor behind the 51.5% market-implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and light winds have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures several degrees above the 1991-2020 average low of 64°F for the date. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance converging on 68-72°F, which supports elevated odds for the adjacent 66-67°F and 72-73°F outcomes. Updated surface observations through early morning confirm the absence of stronger cooling, while historical analogs indicate such mild minima occur in roughly one-third of Septembers under similar synoptic patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 12?
70-71°F 56%
72-73°F 39%
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
34%
68-69°F
8%
70-71°F
52%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 56%
72-73°F 39%
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
19%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
34%
68-69°F
$113 Vol.
8%
70-71°F
$315 Vol.
52%
72-73°F
$262 Vol.
28%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$45 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from National Weather Service models and observational data position the overnight minimum in Los Angeles near 70°F on September 12, 2026, as the dominant factor behind the 51.5% market-implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and light winds have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures several degrees above the 1991-2020 average low of 64°F for the date. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance converging on 68-72°F, which supports elevated odds for the adjacent 66-67°F and 72-73°F outcomes. Updated surface observations through early morning confirm the absence of stronger cooling, while historical analogs indicate such mild minima occur in roughly one-third of Septembers under similar synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$784End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from National Weather Service models and observational data position the overnight minimum in Los Angeles near 70°F on September 12, 2026, as the dominant factor behind the 51.5% market-implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and light winds have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures several degrees above the 1991-2020 average low of 64°F for the date. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance converging on 68-72°F, which supports elevated odds for the adjacent 66-67°F and 72-73°F outcomes. Updated surface observations through early morning confirm the absence of stronger cooling, while historical analogs indicate such mild minima occur in roughly one-third of Septembers under similar synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$784End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from National Weather Service models and observational data position the overnight minimum in Los Angeles near 70°F on September 12, 2026, as the dominant factor behind the 51.5% market-implied probability for the 70-71°F bin. Persistent marine layer influence and light winds have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures several degrees above the 1991-2020 average low of 64°F for the date. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with most guidance converging on 68-72°F, which supports elevated odds for the adjacent 66-67°F and 72-73°F outcomes. Updated surface observations through early morning confirm the absence of stronger cooling, while historical analogs indicate such mild minima occur in roughly one-third of Septembers under similar synoptic patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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