Official forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C in Qingdao on September 9, 2026, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, moderate northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, and typical early-September radiative cooling under the region's temperate monsoon climate. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligns closely with observed trends, where daytime highs reach 25–26°C before nocturnal drops stabilize near this threshold, consistent with coastal station data showing limited diurnal variation. This produces the near-certain market-implied outcome. Unlikely shifts, such as unexpected low-level cloud cover or a sudden southerly wind change, could raise the low by 1–2°C and alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 9?
15°C 99.6%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$4,096 Vol.
$4,096 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
15°C 99.6%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$4,096 Vol.
$4,096 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
$404 Vol.
No
15°C
$45 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$1,343 Vol.
No
17°C
$251 Vol.
No
18°C
$261 Vol.
No
19°C
$301 Vol.
No
20°C
$194 Vol.
No
21°C
$264 Vol.
No
22°C
$117 Vol.
No
23°C
$239 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$677 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C in Qingdao on September 9, 2026, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, moderate northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, and typical early-September radiative cooling under the region's temperate monsoon climate. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligns closely with observed trends, where daytime highs reach 25–26°C before nocturnal drops stabilize near this threshold, consistent with coastal station data showing limited diurnal variation. This produces the near-certain market-implied outcome. Unlikely shifts, such as unexpected low-level cloud cover or a sudden southerly wind change, could raise the low by 1–2°C and alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$4,096End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C in Qingdao on September 9, 2026, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, moderate northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, and typical early-September radiative cooling under the region's temperate monsoon climate. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligns closely with observed trends, where daytime highs reach 25–26°C before nocturnal drops stabilize near this threshold, consistent with coastal station data showing limited diurnal variation. This produces the near-certain market-implied outcome. Unlikely shifts, such as unexpected low-level cloud cover or a sudden southerly wind change, could raise the low by 1–2°C and alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,096End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a minimum temperature of 15°C in Qingdao on September 9, 2026, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, moderate northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, and typical early-September radiative cooling under the region's temperate monsoon climate. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligns closely with observed trends, where daytime highs reach 25–26°C before nocturnal drops stabilize near this threshold, consistent with coastal station data showing limited diurnal variation. This produces the near-certain market-implied outcome. Unlikely shifts, such as unexpected low-level cloud cover or a sudden southerly wind change, could raise the low by 1–2°C and alter resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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