Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models show Qingdao under cloudy skies with southerly winds of 3–4 levels on September 12, supporting a daily low near 20–22°C and highs of 24–26°C. This pattern reflects typical early-autumn moderation from the Yellow Sea, with limited overnight radiational cooling due to cloud cover and onshore flow. Model consensus places the minimum firmly in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, aligning with historical September baselines for the region around 18–23°C. Market-implied odds favoring 15°C or below at 67% likely reflect trader weighting of potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects, while the 23.5% on 25°C or higher captures upside uncertainty if stronger southerly advection develops. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 12?
15°C or below 60%
25°C or higher 47%
17°C 39%
20°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
15°C or below
60%
16°C
25%
17°C
39%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
25%
21°C
23%
22°C
23%
23°C
16%
24°C
24%
25°C or higher
47%
15°C or below 60%
25°C or higher 47%
17°C 39%
20°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
60%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$10 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
23%
22°C
$0 Vol.
23%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C
$0 Vol.
24%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models show Qingdao under cloudy skies with southerly winds of 3–4 levels on September 12, supporting a daily low near 20–22°C and highs of 24–26°C. This pattern reflects typical early-autumn moderation from the Yellow Sea, with limited overnight radiational cooling due to cloud cover and onshore flow. Model consensus places the minimum firmly in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, aligning with historical September baselines for the region around 18–23°C. Market-implied odds favoring 15°C or below at 67% likely reflect trader weighting of potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects, while the 23.5% on 25°C or higher captures upside uncertainty if stronger southerly advection develops. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models show Qingdao under cloudy skies with southerly winds of 3–4 levels on September 12, supporting a daily low near 20–22°C and highs of 24–26°C. This pattern reflects typical early-autumn moderation from the Yellow Sea, with limited overnight radiational cooling due to cloud cover and onshore flow. Model consensus places the minimum firmly in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, aligning with historical September baselines for the region around 18–23°C. Market-implied odds favoring 15°C or below at 67% likely reflect trader weighting of potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects, while the 23.5% on 25°C or higher captures upside uncertainty if stronger southerly advection develops. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and international models show Qingdao under cloudy skies with southerly winds of 3–4 levels on September 12, supporting a daily low near 20–22°C and highs of 24–26°C. This pattern reflects typical early-autumn moderation from the Yellow Sea, with limited overnight radiational cooling due to cloud cover and onshore flow. Model consensus places the minimum firmly in the upper teens to low 20s Celsius, aligning with historical September baselines for the region around 18–23°C. Market-implied odds favoring 15°C or below at 67% likely reflect trader weighting of potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects, while the 23.5% on 25°C or higher captures upside uncertainty if stronger southerly advection develops. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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