**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local KNMI guidance indicate a peak temperature in Amsterdam on September 7, 2026, most likely near 24–25°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies.** This setup advects milder air from the south while limiting full insolation, producing readings several degrees above the early-September climatological average of roughly 20°C. Ensemble and deterministic runs show tight clustering around these values with limited spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C and 25°C outcomes. A modest chance for 26°C exists if cloud cover clears more than expected or if the warm advection strengthens slightly, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the current consensus against significant cooling. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and any shifts in low-level wind or moisture profiles ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 7?
25°C 45%
24°C 32%
26°C 21%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
3%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
11%
23°C
2%
24°C
32%
25°C
45%
26°C
18%
27°C
5%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
2%
25°C 45%
24°C 32%
26°C 21%
22°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$10 Vol.
11%
23°C
$8 Vol.
2%
24°C
$67 Vol.
32%
25°C
$8 Vol.
45%
26°C
$24 Vol.
18%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local KNMI guidance indicate a peak temperature in Amsterdam on September 7, 2026, most likely near 24–25°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies.** This setup advects milder air from the south while limiting full insolation, producing readings several degrees above the early-September climatological average of roughly 20°C. Ensemble and deterministic runs show tight clustering around these values with limited spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C and 25°C outcomes. A modest chance for 26°C exists if cloud cover clears more than expected or if the warm advection strengthens slightly, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the current consensus against significant cooling. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and any shifts in low-level wind or moisture profiles ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$116End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local KNMI guidance indicate a peak temperature in Amsterdam on September 7, 2026, most likely near 24–25°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies.** This setup advects milder air from the south while limiting full insolation, producing readings several degrees above the early-September climatological average of roughly 20°C. Ensemble and deterministic runs show tight clustering around these values with limited spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C and 25°C outcomes. A modest chance for 26°C exists if cloud cover clears more than expected or if the warm advection strengthens slightly, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the current consensus against significant cooling. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and any shifts in low-level wind or moisture profiles ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$116End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like ECMWF, GFS, and local KNMI guidance indicate a peak temperature in Amsterdam on September 7, 2026, most likely near 24–25°C under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies.** This setup advects milder air from the south while limiting full insolation, producing readings several degrees above the early-September climatological average of roughly 20°C. Ensemble and deterministic runs show tight clustering around these values with limited spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 24°C and 25°C outcomes. A modest chance for 26°C exists if cloud cover clears more than expected or if the warm advection strengthens slightly, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below reflect the current consensus against significant cooling. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles and any shifts in low-level wind or moisture profiles ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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