Latest forecast models from sources including the GFS indicate a peak temperature near 24°C in Munich on September 5, 2026, under westerly flow with morning showers giving way to partly cloudy afternoon conditions. This aligns closely with the market-implied 62.5% probability on 24°C and 21.5% on 25°C, as convective activity and moderate humidity (around 50-70%) are expected to cap warming short of higher thresholds while exceeding the 21.4°C climatological average high. Recent model runs show limited spread, with consensus supporting resolution in the 23–25°C range; any shift would require updated observations confirming stronger insolation or suppressed rainfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 5?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 5?
24°C 63%
25°C 22%
23°C 15%
22°C 5%
NEW
$33,024 Vol.
NEW
$33,024 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C
15%
24°C
63%
25°C
22%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 63%
25°C 22%
23°C 15%
22°C 5%
NEW
$33,024 Vol.
NEW
$33,024 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
$1,767 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,160 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,662 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,809 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,857 Vol.
5%
23°C
$6,047 Vol.
15%
24°C
$6,200 Vol.
63%
25°C
$4,413 Vol.
22%
26°C
$1,964 Vol.
1%
27°C
$591 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$1,554 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from sources including the GFS indicate a peak temperature near 24°C in Munich on September 5, 2026, under westerly flow with morning showers giving way to partly cloudy afternoon conditions. This aligns closely with the market-implied 62.5% probability on 24°C and 21.5% on 25°C, as convective activity and moderate humidity (around 50-70%) are expected to cap warming short of higher thresholds while exceeding the 21.4°C climatological average high. Recent model runs show limited spread, with consensus supporting resolution in the 23–25°C range; any shift would require updated observations confirming stronger insolation or suppressed rainfall.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$33,024End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from sources including the GFS indicate a peak temperature near 24°C in Munich on September 5, 2026, under westerly flow with morning showers giving way to partly cloudy afternoon conditions. This aligns closely with the market-implied 62.5% probability on 24°C and 21.5% on 25°C, as convective activity and moderate humidity (around 50-70%) are expected to cap warming short of higher thresholds while exceeding the 21.4°C climatological average high. Recent model runs show limited spread, with consensus supporting resolution in the 23–25°C range; any shift would require updated observations confirming stronger insolation or suppressed rainfall.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,024End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models from sources including the GFS indicate a peak temperature near 24°C in Munich on September 5, 2026, under westerly flow with morning showers giving way to partly cloudy afternoon conditions. This aligns closely with the market-implied 62.5% probability on 24°C and 21.5% on 25°C, as convective activity and moderate humidity (around 50-70%) are expected to cap warming short of higher thresholds while exceeding the 21.4°C climatological average high. Recent model runs show limited spread, with consensus supporting resolution in the 23–25°C range; any shift would require updated observations confirming stronger insolation or suppressed rainfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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