**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models point to a low near 56–58°F for San Francisco on September 6, consistent with the marine layer’s typical influence and the long-term average low of 56.1°F.** Onshore westerly flow and overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, keeping minimums in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Recent days have shown similar upper-50s readings with no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events in the short-range guidance. The closely matched market probabilities for the 56–59°F bins reflect this consensus, while lower-probability tails for 68°F+ or sub-52°F outcomes capture residual model spread in marine-layer depth and wind timing. No significant pattern shift is expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 6?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 6?
49°F or below 69%
58-59°F 59%
60-61°F 49%
62-63°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
49°F or below
69%
50-51°F
21%
52-53°F
31%
54-55°F
23%
56-57°F
31%
58-59°F
42%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
19%
68°F or higher
-
49°F or below 69%
58-59°F 59%
60-61°F 49%
62-63°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
69%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
21%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
31%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
23%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
31%
58-59°F
$53 Vol.
42%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
49%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
19%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
19%
68°F or higher
$2 Vol.
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models point to a low near 56–58°F for San Francisco on September 6, consistent with the marine layer’s typical influence and the long-term average low of 56.1°F.** Onshore westerly flow and overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, keeping minimums in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Recent days have shown similar upper-50s readings with no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events in the short-range guidance. The closely matched market probabilities for the 56–59°F bins reflect this consensus, while lower-probability tails for 68°F+ or sub-52°F outcomes capture residual model spread in marine-layer depth and wind timing. No significant pattern shift is expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$55End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models point to a low near 56–58°F for San Francisco on September 6, consistent with the marine layer’s typical influence and the long-term average low of 56.1°F.** Onshore westerly flow and overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, keeping minimums in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Recent days have shown similar upper-50s readings with no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events in the short-range guidance. The closely matched market probabilities for the 56–59°F bins reflect this consensus, while lower-probability tails for 68°F+ or sub-52°F outcomes capture residual model spread in marine-layer depth and wind timing. No significant pattern shift is expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models point to a low near 56–58°F for San Francisco on September 6, consistent with the marine layer’s typical influence and the long-term average low of 56.1°F.** Onshore westerly flow and overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, keeping minimums in the upper 50s rather than allowing deeper drops. Recent days have shown similar upper-50s readings with no strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events in the short-range guidance. The closely matched market probabilities for the 56–59°F bins reflect this consensus, while lower-probability tails for 68°F+ or sub-52°F outcomes capture residual model spread in marine-layer depth and wind timing. No significant pattern shift is expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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