Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 28°C for Paris on September 4 under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 28°C holding the strongest position at 43.5% followed by 29°C and 27°C, as traders weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs clustered in the upper 20s. Conditions remain above the long-term September average high of 23°C, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover allowing sufficient solar heating. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing or local urban effects introduce uncertainty, though no major shifts have emerged in recent updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 4?
28°C 44%
29°C 28%
27°C 22%
30°C 7%
NEW
$10,627 Vol.
NEW
$10,627 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
22%
28°C
44%
29°C
28%
30°C
7%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 44%
29°C 28%
27°C 22%
30°C 7%
NEW
$10,627 Vol.
NEW
$10,627 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
24°C or below
$511 Vol.
1%
25°C
$469 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$675 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,490 Vol.
22%
28°C
$1,353 Vol.
44%
29°C
$1,888 Vol.
28%
30°C
$1,174 Vol.
7%
31°C
$525 Vol.
2%
32°C
$837 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$826 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$922 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 28°C for Paris on September 4 under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 28°C holding the strongest position at 43.5% followed by 29°C and 27°C, as traders weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs clustered in the upper 20s. Conditions remain above the long-term September average high of 23°C, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover allowing sufficient solar heating. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing or local urban effects introduce uncertainty, though no major shifts have emerged in recent updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$10,627End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 28°C for Paris on September 4 under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 28°C holding the strongest position at 43.5% followed by 29°C and 27°C, as traders weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs clustered in the upper 20s. Conditions remain above the long-term September average high of 23°C, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover allowing sufficient solar heating. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing or local urban effects introduce uncertainty, though no major shifts have emerged in recent updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,627End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate a daytime maximum near 28°C for Paris on September 4 under partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This consensus drives the market-implied probabilities, with 28°C holding the strongest position at 43.5% followed by 29°C and 27°C, as traders weigh the narrow range of ensemble outputs clustered in the upper 20s. Conditions remain above the long-term September average high of 23°C, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover allowing sufficient solar heating. Minor model disagreements on exact peak timing or local urban effects introduce uncertainty, though no major shifts have emerged in recent updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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